What to know about Blackhawks’ offseason: NHL Draft, cap space, free agency

Kyle Davidson is about to embark on this third offseason as Chicago Blackhawks general manager.

In his first offseason, he began further executing his rebuild plan. He traded Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach and accumulated draft picks. He also weaponized his cap space by taking on Petr Mrázek and his contract from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a draft pick. That year, Davidson drafted 11 players, including five players in the first two rounds.

In his second offseason, Davidson got lucky, won the NHL Draft Lottery and selected Connor Bedard with the No. 1 pick. He also took 10 more draft picks, including four in the first two rounds. He utilized his cap space again by acquiring Josh Bailey from the New York Islanders for a draft pick, then bought him out. Davidson also acquired Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno and Corey Perry to add more proven veterans to his NHL roster and signed Ryan Donato as a free agent.

So, what to expect in the third offseason? Here’s an outline of what could happen.

The Macklin Celebrini plan

The Blackhawks aren’t going to make any major roster decisions for next season until they know where they land in the draft lottery, which will occur in early May. If the Blackhawks win the lottery again — their odds are actually better than last year — drafting Macklin Celebrini would shape all of their future plans.

For one, the Blackhawks would have their No. 1 and 2 centers of the future in Bedard and Celebrini. That likely would affect the rest of the Blackhawks’ drafted centers. A few of them could still end up at center, but certainly not as many as expected. Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene, Martin Misiak and Paul Ludwinski are among the drafted centers in the pipeline. Greene is returning to Boston University for his junior season, by the way.

Celebrini would also likely arrive in the NHL next season, and that would alter the current roster makeup and how Davidson would approach this offseason. If the Blackhawks were to have Bedard, Nazar and Celebrini in the lineup next season, Davidson would probably be motivated to get a few more proven wingers to support them. Having Jason Dickinson as a center anchor should help, too.

The non-Macklin Celebrini plan

Now, if the Blackhawks don’t win the lottery again, which is more likely, they are guaranteed a top-four draft pick by finishing in 31st place this season.

The draft isn’t thought to be as deep as the top of last year’s draft. A year ago, Bedard was the grand prize, but Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, Will Smith and Matvei Michkov were also considered potential elite players. This year, there is probably more of a drop-off from Celebrini to the next tier.

That said, if the Blackhawks end up with the second, third or fourth pick, they are still pretty confident they’ll be getting a future impact player. If they want to potentially complete their defense, Artyom Levshunov, whom I wrote about in February, could be an option. If they’re looking to give Bedard a running mate, winger Ivan Demidov could be an intriguing option. I wrote about Demidov recently, too. There are a bunch of other defensemen who are expected to go in the top 10, as well. As for other forwards, Cayden Lindstrom could be a possibility if they want a bigger center or Cole Eiserman if they’re seeking a pure goal-scoring wing.

Aside from Celebrini, no one else in the draft is expected to be in the NHL next season. Levshunov, who is already physically mature, has an outside chance. A team could even put him in the AHL for at least part of the season to adapt to playing at the pro level. Michigan State is hopeful Levshunov will get a second college season.

The rest of the draft

In addition to a top-four pick, the Blackhawks will also have Tampa Bay Lightning’s first-round pick, three second-round picks, two third-round picks, one fifth-round pick and one sixth-round pick. Blackhawks amateur scouting director Mike Doneghey will have plenty to work with again.

Of course, the Blackhawks will want the Lightning to lose earlier than later in the playoffs. If the Blackhawks can pick around No. 20, they’ll be happy. You can start looking more closely at Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler’s rankings to see who could fit the Blackhawks. After reading their coverage, I think that maybe someone like Igor Chernyshov or Michael Hage could interest the Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks will also have an early second-round pick. Their two other second-round picks belong to playoff teams, so they’ll be a little later. But with five total picks in the first two rounds, the Blackhawks should gain a lot of players who they envision to be part of their rebuild plan.

Deciding on their own free agents

The Blackhawks have already re-signed Mrázek, Dickinson and Foligno, who were going to be unrestricted free agents. After them, it’s unlikely the Blackhawks will re-sign any of their other UFAs.

The Blackhawks are expected to re-up a number of their restricted free agents. Alex Vlasic will be the main one, and I’ll discuss his contract more in a bit. Other RFAs the Blackhawks will likely re-sign are Lukas Reichel, Joey Anderson, Cole Guttman, Isaak Phillips and Louis Crevier.

The Blackhawks could walk away from their other restricted free agents or potentially bring a few back as depth NHL players or veterans in the AHL. The other RFAs include Reese Johnson, MacKenzie Entwistle, Taylor Raddysh, Filip Roos, Michal Teplý and Jaxson Stauber.

The fourth organizational goalie

The Blackhawks probably didn’t imagine their goalie situation would play out this way. They were hopeful Arvid Söderblom would better transition to the NHL from the AHL and become their No. 1 goalie this season. Instead, Söderblom struggled through his first NHL season, Mrázek played better than expected and Mrázek became the go-to guy.

With Mrázek and Söderblom signed for next season, the Blackhawks could run it back with the same tandem. Maybe Söderblom will figure it out. But if he doesn’t, the Blackhawks might not want to just hand the No. 2 spot to him again. The Blackhawks also want to continue to be careful not to overtax Mrázek, who was as healthy and consistent as he’s been in years.

The Blackhawks are hopeful Drew Commesso, who is 21, is part of their NHL future, but they don’t want to rush him from the AHL. They’ll likely want to give him at least another developmental season with the IceHogs.

Stauber, who is 24, struggled early in the season, but he’s come on lately. He’s played some of his best pro hockey in the last few weeks and might give the Blackhawks some pause. Could the Blackhawks run their Rockford tandem back again and consider Stauber to replace Söderblom if needed? Or could the Blackhawks let Stauber walk and look for a more proven goalie who could bounce between the AHL and NHL if needed? Davidson has some decisions to make.

Alex Vlasic will get paid this summer. (John Russell / NHLI via Getty Images)

Alex Vlasic’s contract

Vlasic’s contract is Davidson’s first major negotiation with a player who fits into his long-term plans as general manager. It’s the first he will likely seek to do with term and first he’ll really try to get the cap number right to fit inside a future cap-ceiling team.

The assumption was Reichel was going to be in Vlasic’s shoes this offseason, but Reichel likely played himself into a qualifying offer and a chance to earn a greater contract next summer. Instead, Vlasic had a better season and set himself up for a significant pay jump.

We did a deep dive into what Vlasic’s contract could look like in February. You can read that here. But the short version is he will probably get somewhere between four-to-six percent of the cap ceiling, depending on whether it’s a short- or long-term contract. He could get around $3.5 million on a bridge deal or closer to $5.25 million on a long-term one.

From the Blackhawks’ perspective, they might want to sew Vlasic up to a long-term deal and pay him even more than the expected number because he seems to have more offensive potential and he’s already showing signs of being an elite defender. From Vlasic’s point of view, he could consider rolling the dice, bet on himself with a short-term deal and potentially earn more down the road.

A lot of the other RFAs won’t cost the Blackhawks much. I could see the Blackhawks rewarding Anderson with something like they gave Jarred Tinordi this season. Maybe Anderson gets a one- or two-year deal worth more than $1 million.

Getting to the cap floor

The cap ceiling this season was $83.5 million, and the cap floor was $61.7 million. With the cap ceiling expected to increase about $4 million next season, that probably puts the cap floor around $65 million.

As of now, this is the projected roster for next season:

Forwards (10): Taylor Hall ($6 million cap hit), Foligno ($4.5 million), Dickinson ($4.25 million), Andreas Athanasiou ($4.25 million), Philipp Kurashev ($2.25 million), Ryan Donato ($2 million), Joey Anderson (estimated $1.25  million), Bedard ($950,000), Nazar ($950,000) and Reichel (estimated $832,500).

Defensemen (5): Seth Jones ($9.5 million), Vlasic (estimated $5 million), Connor Murphy ($4.4 million), Kevin Korchinski ($918,333) and Wyatt Kaiser ($916,667).

Goalies (2): Mrázek ($4.25 million) and Söderblom ($962,500).

Using Cap Friendly’s custom roster simulator, based on a roster of those 17 players, the Blackhawks still owing $1,166,667 on Bailey’s buyout and still retaining $2 million on Jake McCabe’s contract, the Blackhawks would have a total cap hit of $56,346,667. So, they’d be about $9 million below the cap floor.

The Blackhawks will likely add three more forwards and two more defensemen to this group. They could fill a spot or two with younger players. Defenseman Ethan Del Mastro and forwards Landon Slaggert and Colton Dach could get looks out of camp. Of course, drafting Celebrini would change all this, too. Whether it’s Celebrini or any of those other young players, though, the Black Hawks won’t make up for a lot of cap room due to their entry-level contracts.

Davidson has various options to finish building the roster and at least get to the cap floor. He could make a similar trade to the Bailey one last year. The Blackhawks received a second-round pick in exchange for Bailey and bought him out. Davidson could also take on an unwanted veteran and keep that player. That worked out well with Mrázek and Dickinson. Davidson could also sign a few veterans. Let’s explore that last option.

Free agency

My educated guess is Davidson will sign at least one notable forward and one notable defenseman this offseason. I do think Davidson will upgrade both of those positions to better support his young players.

I asked Davidson recently about weighing whether to add someone who could better benefit Bedard versus the desire to avoid blocking roster spots for incoming prospects.

“It’s a constant balancing act and discussion on how you best do that,” Davidson said. “And it’s something that we’re certainly weighing and we have weighed and we’ll continue to do so moving forward and how it’s best to do that. Like, there’s different avenues to maybe potentially satisfy multiple objectives at once. But it’s not easy. You know these players are very hard to come by and they’re really tough to acquire and so it’s difficult to say we’re going to do this and accomplish all three because those types of players are very hard to find. But it’s definitely something we’re always weighing, the short- and long-term objectives there.”

As I’ve written before, don’t expect the Blackhawks to pursue high-end free agents this summer. They’re not going to be in the hunt for someone like Sam Reinhart if he becomes a free agent. The Blackhawks are willing to pay over market value, but they still want to keep it to short-term deals. Their ideal length is two years, as they’ve shown in most contracts, but I do think the Blackhawks could give a little more term this offseason depending on the player.

In recent months, we’ve looked at some of those free-agent possibilities. We laid out 12 forward possibilities here. And we also had seven defenseman possibilities. The Blackhawks could explore other options, but those players seemed to make the most sense.

Continue planning ahead

It’s important to remember with whatever the Blackhawks do this offseason, Davidson’s focus is still largely on a few seasons from now.

From a cap perspective, that means preparing for Bedard, Korchinski and Nazar all becoming restricted free agents after the 2025-26 season. The Blackhawks will definitely have larger cap commitments heading into the 2026-27 season.

Nazar turned pro this year. Come next year, Moore, Greene and Sam Rinzel likely will join him after their college seasons. You can assume the Blackhawks’ first pick of the 2024 draft will be signed for either the 2024-25 or 2025-26 season. Ludwinski, Gavin Hayes and Samuel Savoie are expected to join Rockford for the 2024-25 season. Nick Lardis and Martin Misiak are likely coming the following season. Roman Kantserov is expected to arrive from Russia for the 2026-27 season.

Can the Blackhawks push for the playoffs in the next few seasons? Nothing is impossible, especially if Bedard and others take major steps. These can be massive summers for the development of young players. But the front office isn’t expecting the Blackhawks to be in the playoff conversation for a few more years. They’re still taking a patient approach.

(Top photo: Matthew Maxey / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)