Every Western Conference NHL team’s best value contract in 2023-24

Every dollar matters in a league with a hard salary cap.

In today’s NHL, players aren’t solely judged on their ability, they’re graded on value and efficiency — how impactful are they relative to their contract?

With the offseason looming, let’s analyze every NHL team’s best value contracts from this past season. “This past season” is an important clarification — we’re not projecting the future. The goal is to identify where each club garnered excess value in 2023-24 and how that equation could change with expiring contracts and higher cost extensions kicking in. Here’s how we’ll conduct this exercise.

• We’ll be using Dom Luszczyszyn’s player model as a measuring stick. Net Rating provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player’s contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit.

•  Entry-level contracts won’t be included.

•  Players’ Net Rating will be prorated over 82 games in case they missed some time because of injuries. With that said, only skaters with more than 50 games played will be analyzed; no goalies.

• The model occasionally overrates the market value of depth players. In situations where I felt there was an obvious, egregious flaw in the model’s results for the “best” value contract this season, I called an audible and picked another player.

• Player bonuses will not be factored in.

• Players who changed teams midseason or this offseason will not be included.

We covered the Eastern Conference teams here. Now, let’s look at the Western Conference.

Best contract in 2023-24: Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas had one of the best seasons of his career carrying Anaheim’s second pair. He had some of the best defensive metrics of all top-four defensemen this season, which led to the Ducks remarkably outscoring opponents by five goals during his five-on-five shifts. Driving such gaudy defensive results, on this bad of a Ducks team, without a legitimate top-four caliber partner, is enormously impressive.

Frank Vatrano exploded for a career-high 37 goals this season. Out of the 40 NHL players who scored at least 30 goals this season, Vatrano’s $3.65 million cap hit was the third lowest in that group and shoots up to second most efficient if you exclude Wyatt Johnston’s entry-level contract. He could have as easily been Anaheim’s “best value” contract over Gudas. The model grades him very harshly defensively but playing for a miserable Ducks team is important context; I’d argue Vatrano’s underrated by his overall Net Rating figure.

Urho Vaakanainen was a solid, unspectacular depth contributor on the back end, regularly playing on Gudas’ pair at a bargain $850,000 rate. Brett Leason contributed 11 goals from the bottom six for only $775,000.

Best contract in 2023-24: Sean Durzi

Sean Durzi was a home run acquisition by GM Bill Armstrong. The dynamic 25-year-old right-shot defender led his club in averaging 22:43 per game and scored 41 points. He provided legitimate top-four value for $1.7 million.

Among the forwards, Nick Bjugstad drove excellent results in the middle of the lineup, scoring 22 goals and 45 points. Matias Maccelli is one of the league’s most underrated playmaking wingers — he finished third in team scoring with 57 points on a bargain contract.

Juuso Välimäki performed well for his $1 million cap hit and his underlying numbers were excellent (controlled 52.5 percent of expected goals and a plus-15 five-on-five goal differential), but he didn’t grade as well via the eye test. Välimäki’s play had highs and lows, which included a string of healthy scratches in January, and his point totals dropped by 17 compared to 2022-23. He was still a valuable contributor but not as impactful as his analytics suggest.

Best contract in 2023-24: Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman broke out with the best offensive season of his career at 32, notching 30 goals and 54 points. Stack that on top of his strong penalty-killing and matchup-defensive capabilities at even strength and it’s the first time that he’s provided significant surplus value on his $4.9 million cap hit.

Nazem Kadri led Calgary with 75 points, which included finishing top-30 among NHL forwards in five-on-five scoring. The Flames beat opponents by 15 goals during Kadri’s five-on-five shifts; they were outscored by 29 goals in all other five-on-five minutes. Kadri turns 34 in October and still has five years left, though, so his deal could start looking dicey soon.

Yegor Sharangovich produced 31 goals and 59 points. He had the lowest cap hit (excluding ELCs) of all players to score 30-plus goals this season. The reason he didn’t rank higher analytically is because he gave back value defensively — the Flames surrendered 3.7 goals against per hour during Sharangovich’s five-on-five ice time.

On the back end, MacKenzie Weegar was the Flames’ best defender, scoring 20 goals and 52 points on a $6.25 million cap hit.

Best contract in 2023-24: Jason Dickinson

Chicago’s best bang-for-buck performers (Connor Bedard and Alex Vlasic) are on their ELCs so the options were limited here.

Jason Dickinson was genuinely terrific value for his $2.65 million cap hit, though. He scored 22 goals and posted stellar defensive numbers despite being fed to the wolves handling difficult matchups. Philipp Kurashev, who scored 54 points on a $2.25 million AAV, also deserves a shoutout. The model dinged him hard defensively, though, because the Blackhawks were outscored by 35 goals during his five-on-five shifts, not to mention his offensive numbers were likely inflated from playing with Bedard.

Best contract in 2023-24: Jonathan Drouin

Jonathan Drouin was the most efficient cost-per-point producer in the NHL (excluding ELCs), notching a career-high 56 points while earning $825,000.

Devon Toews’ $4.1 million AAV contract was a massive competitive advantage for the last four years. He should still provide surplus value on his next deal ($7.25 million AAV), however, which looks team-friendly with the rising cap.

Nationally, it feels like the impact of Logan O’Connor’s season-ending injury didn’t get enough attention. The speedy 27-year-old winger was excellent on the penalty kill, a key third-line play driver and was on pace for 18 goals before he got hurt — he was an unsung hero at $1.05 million.

Best contract in 2023-24: Miro Heiskanen

Even if you ignore their incredible ELC performers like Johnston, Thomas Harley and Logan Stankoven, the Stars still have some strong value contracts. Leading the way is Miro Heiskanen, one of the best defensemen on the planet, making under $8.5 million through the 2028-29 season. Heiskanen is elite defensively, excellent in transition both ways (breaking the puck and defending the rush) and one of the league’s top point producers from the back end — he boasts a rare, all-around package. Between him and Jason Robertson, Dallas has a unique contention window with two underpaid stars.

Matt Duchene scored 25 goals and 65 points in the regular season while supercharging Dallas’ second line for $3 million. Joe Pavelski struggled in the playoffs but he still tallied 27 goals and 67 points in the regular season.

Craig Smith is a less heralded name that deserves some attention. He did yeoman’s work driving Dallas’ fourth line with his speed and energy, on top of chipping in with 11 goals.

Best contract in 2023-24: Evan Bouchard

Bridging young stars can be a double-edged sword and Bouchard is a terrific example. On one hand, it’s bonkers that the Oilers have a high-end No. 1 defenseman for $3.9 million. On the other hand, they only have one more year of this luxury before Bouchard’s elite statistical profile gets him paid a monster sum.

Zach Hyman is one of the best free-agent signings ever, scoring 54 goals despite being paid like a run-of-the-mill second-liner. He could have as easily gotten the crown as the Oilers’ best contract for 2023-24.

Speaking of monumental outside acquisitions, Mattias Ekholm’s two-way skill set is essential to the Oilers’ blue line and his play has unlocked the best version of Bouchard.

Best contract in 2023-24: Matt Roy

L.A.’s abundance of right-shot defense talent may result in another casualty this summer. Matt Roy, who had another impressive year as a high-end second-pair shutdown defenseman, will be looking to cash in a sizable raise from his $3.15 million AAV as a pending UFA. With Drew Doughty still operating at an elite level and top prospect Brandt Clarke ready for a major role, it likely makes the most sense for the Kings to let another team give Roy the bag.

In the top six, Trevor Moore scored 31 goals and 57 points for a couple of ticks over $4 million. Adrian Kempe scored a career-high 75 points for $5.5 million.

Mikey Anderson didn’t have his best campaign in 2023-24, but having a strong top-pair defensive defenseman locked up through his prime at just over $4 million is still a savvy contract.

Best contract in 2023-24: Joel Eriksson Ek

Joel Eriksson Ek has increased his point production in five consecutive seasons, which included his first 30-goal campaign in 2023-24. Add that offensive punch to his excellent shutdown defensive talent and you’ve got one of the league’s best two-way centers for $5.25 million against the cap.

Kirill Kaprizov was hindered by the nagging effects of injury early in the season but rediscovered his game-breaking touch, scoring a whopping 38 goals and 71 points in the final 46 games. It’s a shame the Wild underachieved because Kaprizov’s dominance deserved more of the national spotlight.

On the back end, Jonas Brodin remains a cream-of-the-crop shutdown defenseman. Zach Bogosian logged nearly 18 minutes per game — his highest average ice time since 2018-19 — and excelled, playing hardnosed, defensively responsible hockey for $850,000.

Ryan Hartman is polarizing and can cross the line with bad penalties, but it’s hard to argue against 21 goals and 45 points for less than $2 million. The real challenge starts next season when his $4 million AAV extension kicks in.

Best contract in 2023-24: Roman Josi

The top end of Nashville’s lineup all played to the peak of its potential in the regular season. Roman Josi is a Norris Trophy finalist for just a tick over $9 million, Gustav Nyquist quietly scored 75 points as the third wheel on the top line and Ryan O’Reilly pitched in with 69 points centering the first line on top of excellent two-way results.

Further down the lineup, Tommy Novak was a dynamic middle-six threat, producing 45 points in 71 games for $800,000. On the back end, Alex Carrier regularly matched up against top lines and did an impressive job limiting scoring chances and goals against.

Best contract in 2023-24: Fabian Zetterlund

Zetterlund cemented himself as a promising piece of the Sharks’ future this season. Acquired in the Timo Meier trade, the tenacious, gritty winger scored 24 goals on a $1.45 million cap hit in his first full season in San Jose.

Mikael Granlund’s Net Rating figure was tanked by his defensive numbers, but scoring 60 points in 69 games as the club’s de facto first-line center was tidy work for $5 million.

It’s a shame Ty Emberson got hurt and only played in 30 games otherwise he would have landed on this list. Emberson could be a gem of a waiver pickup as he provided rock-solid defensive play on the back end.

Best contract in 2023-24: Vince Dunn

This is the second season in a row that Vince Dunn has performed at the level of a No. 1 defenseman. The smooth-skating 27-year-old ranked 12th among all defensemen in points per game as he piled up 11 goals and 46 points in 59 games before he got injured. The industry may view Dunn’s contract as closer to fair value than a bargain but Seattle has a whopping plus-51 goal differential during Dunn’s five-on-five shifts over the last two seasons, which is part of the reason he’s an analytics darling.

Up front, the Kraken got solid top-nine wing production out of Eeli Tolvanen (41 points for $1.45 million), Jared McCann (29 goals and 62 points at $5 million) and Oliver Bjorkstrand (59 points at $5.4 million).

Best contract in 2023-24: Robert Thomas

The Blues didn’t have enough players that substantially outperformed their contracts in 2023-24. Robert Thomas was the exception. Thomas scored 86 points, absorbed some of the toughest defensive matchups of all NHL forwards and handily won those minutes with a plus-18 five-on-five goal differential. He’s one of the league’s most underrated first-line centers, at a $8.125 million AAV that’s starting to look team-friendly.

Scott Perunovich grades well by the model because the Blues won the even-strength goal share battle during his minutes, but by the eye, he struggled more than the numbers would indicate. The diminutive offensive defender has enough potential to warrant another NHL look, but he has room to grow defensively.

Pavel Buchnevich is an excellent winger but his statistical impact is probably inflated by spending so much time on Thomas’ line. Buchnevich is a very talented player on a team-friendly AAV, but Thomas was clearly the engine of that line this past season.

Best contract in 2023-24: Quinn Hughes

Countless Canucks players outperformed their contract in a dream 2023-24 season, led by Quinn Hughes. The 24-year-old star defenseman was by far Vancouver’s MVP and will likely win the Norris Trophy this year, all for under $8 million.

Dakota Joshua, Nils Höglander and Pius Suter all crushed it as complementary top-nine wingers. Joshua was one of the league’s hits leaders, scored 18 goals in 63 games and blossomed as a penalty killer while clocking in at $825,000. Höglander scored 24 goals at five-on-five, which tied him with Mikko Rantanen for 10th best in the NHL. Suter, meanwhile, was exceptionally versatile, posted stellar defensive metrics and chipped in with 14 goals and 29 points in 67 games.

Filip Hronek faded down the stretch, but for the most part, he was the perfect partner for Hughes. They were the best top pair in the NHL by goal differential for most of the season and while Hughes was the main driver, Hronek’s offensive IQ and playmaking added nitrous. He was great value for $4.4 million, though many Canucks fans fear how pricey his next contract will be.

Best contract in 2023-24: William Karlsson

I was a little bit surprised that Jonathan Marchessault, after scoring 42 goals and 27 assists in the final year of his $5 million AAV contract, didn’t clock in as Vegas’ best bang for buck contract. William Karlsson didn’t produce quite as much as Marchessault (30 goals and 30 assists in 70 games) but he earned an edge because of his elite play-driving and spectacular defensive profile.

On the back end, Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore (who just missed the 50 games played threshold) routinely drive outstanding results on the second pair for a combined $8.1 million.

Nicolas Roy is heavy, defensively reliable, can play anywhere in the lineup and scored 41 points in 70 games — that’s strong all-around value for $3 million.

Best contract in 2023-24: Josh Morrissey

Josh Morrissey’s explosive 76-point breakout in 2022-23 had many wondering what was next. Had he arrived as a legitimate star defenseman or was regression coming? Morrissey’s dominant 2023-24 campaign, which included 69 points and a sparkling 1.74 goals against per hour rate at five-on-five made it abundantly clear that he’s the real deal as a high-end No. 1 defender and that he’s on one of the best contracts in the entire NHL. His partner Dylan DeMelo deserves credit, too, although his underlying numbers are likely inflated from Morrissey’s heavy lifting as a play-driver.

Vladislav Namestnikov is an invaluable utility forward. He defends well, kills penalties and chipped in with 37 points.

Adam Lowry is one of the best third-line centers in the NHL. He thrives in a shutdown role, plays a mean, heavy style and his line outscored opponents by 17 goals at five-on-five this season.

Talented but underutilized, Nikolaj Ehlers scored 25 goals and 61 points at a reasonable $6 million cap hit. He’s a year away from hitting free agency so the Jets need to decide whether he’s part of the club’s long-term future or not.

Gabriel Vilardi just missed the games played cut, but he deserves love for scoring 22 goals in 47 games for a shade below $3.5 million.

(Photos of Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard: Derek Cain / Getty Images and Sergei Belski / USA Today)