With draft-floor trades and the first day of unrestricted free agency just days away, it’s time to break down where each team stands on a position-by-position basis.
That means striking a balance between what each franchise already has in the fold and what it still needs going into the offseason.
Using Net Rating, we looked at how much value each team is currently expected to carry at each position and the holes they have to address. Teams without franchise talent (top-32 forward, top-16 defenseman, top-eight goalie) were penalized further for having a more glaring need. With that as a baseline, we added some subjectivity as a finishing touch.
Here’s how we’d rank each team’s goaltending depth, from best to worst, as the offseason kicks off and the window to improve begins.
Current quality: 98th percentile
Looking for: Backup goalie
No single goalie is more valuable than Connor Hellebuyck. He brings quality and quantity to the equation, enough to singlehandedly put the Jets in first place. This spot belonged to the Bruins before they shipped Linus Ullmark to Ottawa, since two fantastic goaltenders are better than one. Ullmark’s exit, though, swung things in Winnipeg’s favor.
A potential issue for the Jets, though, is their lack of a backup — great as Hellebuyck is, someone else will need to start 20 games or so.
Current quality: 84th percentile
Looking for: None
There’s a strong argument to be made that if you needed one goalie to start a Game 7, the best choice is on the Rangers roster. Igor Shesterkin is one of the absolute best goalies in the world and without a doubt the best playoff performer at the position.
We’re giving a slight edge to Hellebuyck, the likely Vezina Trophy winner from the 2023-24 season, especially after a subpar-by-his-standards regular season from Shesterkin. But his postseason run was good enough to almost completely close the gap.
Current quality: 95th percentile
Looking for: None
We’re still high on Ilya Sorokin as a franchise-caliber starter despite a slip in his performance last season, and Semyon Varlamov remains one of the very best backups in the league. Both are signed long-term, and both are huge reasons the Islanders have persisted as a playoff team.
Current quality: 89th percentile
Looking for: None
There are very few goalies who can be consistently counted on to deliver consistently high-end performances year after year. Juuse Saros is one of them, even after a down year.
Saros was better once he and the rest of the Predators settled into Andrew Brunette’s system, and the model still views him as a franchise goalie.
The trump card for the Predators is his backup, Yaroslav Askarov. The 22-year-old was picked 11th in 2020 and is widely regarded as one of the best goalie prospects in the world. He gives the Predators serious depth — and an interesting conundrum between the pipes with Saros’ contract up at season’s end.
5. Boston Bruins
Current quality: 84th percentile
Looking for: None
You can only start one goalie at a time and that fact finally came to a head in Boston. That the Bruins land in the top five and the Senators aren’t far behind speaks to how fruitful the Jeremy Swayman and Ullmark combination has been for Boston. Together, the duo would’ve ranked first here and the Bruins parlayed that strength into a first-round pick.
This is Swayman’s net now and he looks like the real deal, a true franchise guy. It remains to be seen how he fares with a full starter’s workload, but his resume to date suggests he has what it takes. He looked like a special breed in the playoffs and is just entering his prime.
Behind him now is Joonas Korpisalo, one of the worst-rated goalies in the league. He had one flash-in-the-pan season in 2022-23 and could bounce back to that level behind a structured Bruins defense. But it’s a risky bet given his body of work.
GO DEEPER
NHL trade grades: Senators get Linus Ullmark from Bruins for Joonas Korpisalo
Current quality: 72nd percentile
Looking for: None
The biggest reason to believe in the Canucks as a Cup-caliber team is the elite talent they have at the top of each positional group, and Thatcher Demko is a big part of that. He returned to franchise-goalie form in 2023-24 and Vancouver reaped the benefits.
When an injury knocked Demko out of the postseason, Arturs Silovs filled in admirably, looking very much like a long-term backup with the potential for more.
Current quality: 83rd percentile
Looking for: None
The Senators ranked relatively high at center, wing and defense; goaltending is their Achilles’ heel. All that has changed with their big-time acquisition of Ullmark, one of the league’s best goalies. With Ullmark in and Korpisalo out, the Senators took a massive leap from 31st into the top 10.
Trading for Ullmark likely solves a lot of Ottawa’s problems, but it doesn’t come without risk. Few goalies have delivered more value than Ullmark over the last two seasons, but his subpar body of work before that can’t be ignored. He’s also never played more than 50 games and may struggle to live up to the hype on a less structured team.
The model loves Ullmark; he was the best bet out there. His track record looks far better than Matt Murray’s or Korpisalo’s did at the time and the Senators have clearly learned from those blunders. He didn’t come at a high cost either.
But goalies are always tricky and those red flags are still worth mentioning. Ottawa should finally have stability between the pipes next season, but it’s never a guarantee with goalies.
The Senators acquired Linus Ullmark from the Bruins and dealt out Joonas Korpisalo, bumping them from 31st into the top 10. (Philip G. Pavely / USA Today)
Current quality: 67th percentile
Looking for: None
Let’s be honest: This was a trying season for Jake Oettinger. Among starters, he ranked 24th in goals saved above expected thanks to a .905 save percentage. We expect a lot better from him.
We hold Oettinger in high regard, and though he bounced back in the playoffs, he needs to return to form next season. Dallas’ place in the top 10 and his next contract depend on it.
Current quality: 71st percentile
Looking for: Backup goalie
A few rocky patches in the postseason may have obscured just how good Stuart Skinner played during the regular season. That, combined with his bounce-back performance during the playoffs, should quell some doubt. He’s a legit starter on an elite team. Edmonton should still look into adding a quality backup, though; Jack Campbell, for a variety of reasons, doesn’t seem like a feasible option.
Current quality: 46th percentile
Looking for: None
Reputation goes a long way in goaltending circles, and it’s the only thing keeping Tampa Bay in the top 10.
Andrei Vasilevskiy had a tough time after returning from injury, finishing with an .899 save percentage. It was his first season since 2015-16 in which he finished with a below-average save percentage. Some of that was on the team in front of him, but his goals saved above expected was negative, too.
We expect a bounce-back, but Vasilevskiy’s season is proof that even the best goalies can be mortal. Add a shaky backup behind him and Tampa Bay slides to the back of the top 10 from its usual spot near the top.
Current quality: 64th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Jordan Binnington bounced back from the two worst seasons of his career with a run that should’ve put him on Vezina ballots. He was the single biggest reason the Blues hung around on the playoff periphery.
His relative lack of track record over the past few years stops him from landing in the franchise tier, but he’s far from a problem in St. Louis — and the same goes for quality backup Joel Hofer.
Current quality: 52nd percentile
Looking for: None
The Devils’ glaring weakness has finally been solved. It would’ve been nice if they traded for Jacob Markstrom last December, January, February or March — but June is fine. It means the Devils are all in on returning to the top of the Metro.
Markstrom is a solid starter, but he is on the older side which creates some risk. The Devils are set with him and Jake Allen as a tandem and while it may be an above-average one, it’s probably not elite. If the rest of the roster can play up to the level of the 2022-23 group, that’s more than enough.
Current quality: 68th percentile
Looking for: None
Both of Carolina’s goaltenders qualify as solid time-share options — and neither as a true starting-caliber guy. Injuries have been an issue for Frederik Andersen (50 appearances over the last two seasons), enough for Pyotr Kochetkov to beat him on projected value.
Kochetkov is also 24, which helps his projection, and put up a .911 save percentage in 42 appearances. It’s easy to imagine him taking over as Carolina’s primary starter permanently.
Current quality: 60th percentile
Looking for: Franchise player
If we had done this exercise last season, Buffalo’s position would’ve been much weaker. The Sabres had a lot of uncertainty in net and a lot riding on Devon Levi being the answer.
Levi wasn’t that in his first season, but he showed promise while the Sabres found answers elsewhere. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen took the starting job and never looked back, saving 22 goals above expected — one of the highest marks in the league.
That took some pressure off Levi and now gives Buffalo a lot of stability in a very exciting package. Luukkonen, who’s still young himself at 25, can comfortably be the team’s starter while Levi develops. He gives Buffalo two blue chips, and in a position as volatile as goaltending, that’s a big win.
We still expect Levi to be the top dog one day, but Luukkonen has made things a lot more interesting. His surge toward looking like a capable starter gives Buffalo one of the stronger positions in the league.
Current quality: 29th percentile
Looking for: None
If this seems low for Sergei Bobrovsky, know that his recent playoff track record actually earned him a few bumps up the ladder. In the regular season, he’s been solid but not spectacular. Anthony Stolarz, a pending UFA, outplayed him last season in plenty of ways.
If Stolarz leaves, Spencer Knight is on track to return to the Panthers’ roster after a strong finish to his season with AHL Charlotte. Formerly a top prospect, he’s still just 23 years old.
Current quality: 48th percentile
Looking for: None
The Golden Knights are so strong defensively that they don’t need a world-beater between the pipes. They proved it with their 2023 Stanley Cup and it remains true today. They have one of the best goaltending duos in the league in Adin Hill and Logan Thompson, with both capable of getting hot at a moment’s notice. While neither looks like an elite starter by any means, this system is good enough for Vegas.
Current quality: 51st percentile
Looking for: None
The middle of the rankings seems like the right place for the home of Alexandar Georgiev, who followed up a solid first season in net for the Avs with a below-average one. He brings an element of volatility to Colorado’s overall situation.
Justus Annunen, meanwhile, is an interesting backup. He’s 24, put up a .928 save percentage in 14 appearances last season and could be a half-decent Plan B if Georgiev hits some dry spells in 2024-25.
Current quality: 69th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Don’t let Sam Montembeault’s .902 save percentage over the last two seasons fool you — he’s been a lot better than that for the Canadiens. Behind a porous blue line, he’s managed to save 33.5 goals above expected, which ranks seventh in the league between Swayman and Skinner.
He comes out looking great per the model, but we’re a little more hesitant to anoint him an above-average starter. It would help his case if he was able to play an actual starter’s workload, but for now, we’re comfortable putting him right around average.
19. Utah HC
Current quality: 59th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Connor Ingram solidified his standing as a legit starting goaltender in 2023-24, at times looking capable of dragging his team into the playoff race. He tailed off at the end, as did the Arizona Coyotes, but he’s certainly earned a second look at the big job. Behind him is Karel Vejmelka, who’s had some strong runs of his own over the last few years. Still, Ingram is the more intriguing option.
Current quality: 39th percentile
Looking for: None
Turning Pierre-Luc Dubois — and everything the Kings traded to acquire him — into the husk of Darcy Kuemper doesn’t feel ideal.
Kuemper is the latest answer for Los Angeles’ goalie woes, but he doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The Kings’ defensive ability means they don’t need an elite option and Kuemper should be serviceable along with David Rittich. That doesn’t make him an inspiring option, though.
The Kings acquired Darcy Kuemper from the Capitals for Pierre-Luc Dubois. (Eric Bolte / USA Today)
Current quality: 44th percentile
Looking for: 1B goalie
Toronto seems to be committing to Joseph Woll, with reports of a three-year extension being imminent. The AAV could prove to be a bit rich for Woll, but he was also Toronto’s most consistent goaltender in 2023-24 (.907 save percentage in 25 starts) and seems to be a better fit than pending UFA Ilya Samsonov.
Woll’s track record is short, though, and the Leafs should invest in a quality option to either play behind him or split time.
Current quality: 26th percentile
Looking for: None
As far as starting goalies go, Tristan Jarry does not inspire confidence. His numbers aren’t great, he’s often injured and he struggles to rise to the occasion. The model has him in the 20-25 range which is not ideal for a team with playoff aspirations.
The Penguins needed a legitimate 1B who could push Jarry. Instead, they settled for Alex Nedeljkovic, a familiar face who momentarily stole the starting job last season — mostly as a result of stronger goal support than anything he actually did. They make for a low-upside duo that will cost almost $8 million next year. Yuck.
Current quality: 20th percentile
Looking for: None
We’ve got an interesting situation in Minnesota, where Filip Gustavsson still profiles as a solid starter despite a disappointing 2023-24 and Marc-Andre Fleury drags down their projections significantly. That shouldn’t be a surprise — Fleury turns 40 in November and is coming off the worst regular-season save percentage (.895) of his career.
If Gustavsson regains his form from 2022-23, Minnesota will be set. The possibility that he doesn’t, combined with Fleury’s apparent decline, should be a concern.
Current quality: 42nd percentile
Looking for: Franchise player
A midseason injury to Philipp Grubauer thrust Joey Daccord into the Kraken’s starter slot and he never looked back. The question is whether he’s up for a repeat performance.
Goalies can be tricky and without a track record for Daccord, it’s difficult to have a lot of faith in him as a legitimate starter. What hurts more here is Grubauer, who looks washed at 32.
Seattle’s duo could work fine, but it’s a scary duo to go into a season with. With the team in desperate need of franchise talent, it would be nice to see Daccord build on last season and prove he’s the guy to fill that void for Seattle.
Current quality: 44th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, backup goalie
The Capitals wouldn’t have sniffed the playoffs without Charlie Lindgren, who put up a career-high .911 save percentage and the ninth-most goals saved above expected in the league, winning a score of one-goal games along the way.
On one hand, given his career backup status before 2023-24, there’s very real flash-in-the-pan potential here. On the other, he projects to provide starter value. Either way, he’s as easy to root for as they come.
Current quality: 15th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
John Gibson seems to have lost whatever goodwill he’s earned off a reputation that was built over half a decade ago. It’s been a long time since he’s shown he can be a playoff-caliber starter. Lukas Dostal took up a bigger chunk of the game share last season and may be the future after outperforming Gibson for the second straight season.
The present is still murky, though, because “outperforming Gibson” is not a high bar in 2024. The Ducks are where they are due to a lack of high-end talent. A miraculous return to form from Gibson or a breakthrough from Dostal is desperately needed.
Current quality: 14th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Flames fans love 23-year-old Dustin Wolf for good reason — all he’s done is play well and win hockey games, from juniors to the AHL. Success in the NHL, though, hasn’t yet followed (.893 in 17 appearances). He’s about to get an extended shot at holding the starter’s net in the wake of Markstrom’s departure. In the meantime, Calgary could probably use better insurance than Dan Vladar.
Current quality: 24th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Two New Jersey expats don’t make for a serious duo. It’s worth noting, though, that both Mackenzie Blackwood and Vitek Vanecek have shown some promise at points over the last two seasons. As bad as the Sharks were last year, Blackwood held the fort. As bad as Vanecek was last year, he was legitimately good the year prior.
It’s ugly, but it’s not as bad as what some other bottom-feeders have going for them.
Current quality: 10th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent
Credit to Petr Mrazek, who still manages to grade out as a decent time-split option despite spending two seasons behind an absolutely atrocious team. That’s less true for Arvid Soderblom, but on balance, goaltending is pretty low on Chicago’s list of issues.
Current quality: 16th percentile
Looking for: Franchise player, starting goalie
Over the last two seasons, Alex Lyon and Ville Husso have shown stretches of high-level hockey. They’ve also shown exactly why they can’t be depended on in a bigger role — they buckle under a heavy workload.
That’s the dilemma here for the Red Wings: They’ve got two 1Bs, if that, but no alpha.
Current quality: 27th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, starting goalie
Samuel Ersson, 24, took over as the Flyers’ starting goalie in January when Carter Hart was granted a leave of absence after being charged with sexual assault in connection to an alleged incident that occurred in 2018 in London, Ont. In his first full NHL season, Ersson started 51 games and ran out of gas down the stretch, finishing with an .890 save percentage. He was replaced by KHL import Ivan Fedotov, who didn’t fare any better. The Flyers eventually faceplanted their way out of the postseason.
The hope should be that Ersson performs better with more regular rest and that Fedotov adequately adjusts to facing NHL shooters. It’ll be quite the challenge.
Current quality: 2nd percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, starting goalie
New GM Don Waddell wasn’t mincing words about Elvis Merzlikins. “Let’s be honest, nobody is going to trade for that contract. Nobody,” Waddell told The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline last week. “People say, ‘Well, why don’t you buy out the contract?’ It’s a six-year buyout, and there are years three, four, five and six, when you might need that cap space.”
Waddell’s only real option? To hope Merzlikins plays well enough to rehab his reputation. He’s put up .876 and .895 save percentages the last two seasons, so … nowhere to go but up. Backup Daniil Tarasov is coming off a .908 save percentage in 2023-24, so things could be worse. Not much worse, but worse.
(Top photos of Connor Hellebuyck and Igor Shesterkin: David Lipnowski and Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
