With draft-floor trades and the first day of unrestricted free agency just days away, it’s time to break down where each team stands on a position-by-position basis.
That means striking a balance between what each franchise already has in the fold and what it still needs going into the offseason.
Using Net Rating, we looked at how much value each team is currently expected to carry at each position, as well as the holes they have to address. Teams without franchise talent (top-32 forward, top-16 defenseman, top-eight goalie) were penalized further for having a more glaring need. With that as a baseline, we added some subjectivity as a finishing touch.
Here’s how we’d rank each team’s defensive depth, from best to worst, as the offseason kicks off and the window to improve begins.
GO DEEPER
Which NHL teams need upgrades at wing? Ranking all 32 teams by current quality
Current quality: 93rd percentile
Looking for: None
After trading for Noah Hanifin, there’s no team with a better situation on the backend than Vegas. He gives the Golden Knights three legitimate top-pair defensemen, all on the higher end of that spectrum. Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo can handle tough minutes, while Shea Theodore remains one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. It’s an embarrassment of riches.
Add a couple of top-four capable guys (Brayden McNabb, Zach Whitecloud) and a strong third-pair option (Nicolas Hague) and you get the best one-to-six group in the league. The Golden Knights have an elite balance of star power and depth, with a strong mix of offense and defense.
Current quality: 91st percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman
The Stars are sitting pretty, even as Chris Tanev heads for unrestricted free agency. If they bring him back or find a suitable replacement on the right side, they’d have an even stronger case for the No. 1 spot. Tanev was exactly what Dallas needed at the deadline, and he’s exactly what it needs today.
In the meantime, Miro Heiskanen is an elite, all-situations beast, and Esa Lindell is a competent partner. In his second NHL season, Thomas Harley took another step forward and projects as a high-end first-pair talent. Nils Lundqvist and Ryan Suter are solid enough a bit down the lineup, too. Fill the Tanev-shaped hole next to Harley and all will be well.
Current quality: 82nd percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman, third-pair defenseman
With all due respect to the best regular-season defenseman (Quinn Hughes) and playoff defenseman (Evan Bouchard), the best defenseman in the league is still Cale Makar. Having him on the roster is more than enough to give Colorado solid standing, even after a down year. Along with Devon Toews, the Avalanche have the best pair in the league.
Their position here is entirely based on that top pair, though, as the rest is lacking. Josh Manson is a capable No. 4, but the recent backslide by Samuel Girard has the team with a sizable hole in the top four. A return to form from Girard would go a long way, but for now, it looks like a big need. Add a missing bottom pair to that, and Colorado’s spot feels a little tenuous. The top pair can only take this team so far.
Current quality: 91st percentile
Looking for: None
Edmonton grades out above Colorado based on percentile because of Darnell Nurse; the model likes him more than the Avs’ second-pair guys by a solid margin — solid enough to make up for the underwhelming presence of Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak and Philip Broberg. Call us prisoners of the moment, but we’re not co-signing. Nurse struggled enough in the postseason to get dropped down a bit.
The Oilers’ top pair, of course, is fantastic. Bouchard projects to be one of the few most valuable defensemen in the league, and Mattias Ekholm is his ideal partner. We’re just not quite ready to slot them in ahead of Makar and Toews.
Current quality: 83rd percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman, third-pair defensemen
Everything said about Colorado holds true here. The Canucks have one of the best top pairs in the league, highlighted by one of the best defensemen in the world and the chemistry he has with a solid No. 2. They have a dependable defensive defender in the four slot to add to that, but major holes elsewhere.
Those can all be fixed in free agency, but for now, the Canucks are a team with big needs being propped up by a superstar. The difference between the Canucks and Avalanche in that regard narrowed drastically, but we’d still take each guy from Colorado over his Vancouver counterpart.
Current quality: 86th percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defensemen
The Hurricanes’ placement is a testament to their strength as a unit. The five teams ahead of them all have at least one franchise defender, and the five teams behind them do, as well. Carolina makes it work with two high-end first-pair guys in Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns, the latter of whom still has that designation despite turning 39 in March.
Their presence, along with Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield — both solid in their own right — makes finding a franchise guy less important for the Hurricanes. Their bigger issue is finding a way to replace Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce, both of whom seem to have priced themselves out of Carolina. Orlov and Chatfield can step in as the new second pair, it’ll just be a step down from where the Hurricanes were last season.
Charlie McAvoy remains a franchise-level defenseman. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Current quality: 75th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman
Having an elite franchise defender goes a long way. We’re big fans of Charlie McAvoy, but after last season, it is starting to feel like he’s been edged out of the top-five defensemen conversation. That bumps Boston down a bit relative to the competition, especially compared to Colorado and Vancouver, which are in similar situations. All three have an elite franchise guy, a strong No. 2 and a defensive No. 4. In this case, it’s the gap in franchise talent pushing the Bruins down.
Boston is in good shape with the talent on the roster, but adding a top-four defender is a definite area of need. We’re not particularly high on any of the other options on the team to fill that role.
Current quality: 62nd percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defenseman
Tampa Bay’s overall projections are dragged down by 23-year-old Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, their No. 7 defenseman. We’re not interested in penalizing them all that much — this is a group that seems primed to improve on last season, thanks in large part to the reacquisition of Ryan McDonagh.
With McDonagh back in the fold, everything about the Lightning’s lineup makes more sense. Victor Hedman is still at the top, doing Hall of Famer-type stuff. Mikhail Sergachev will be coming off a full offseason’s worth of rehab on his leg. And now, the still-outstanding McDonagh is back on the left side behind them, presumably in his shutdown role on a pair with Erik Cernak.
Current quality: 76th percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defenseman
Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang may be ancient, but they’re still really effective, and that’s enough to push the Penguins into the top 10. Karlsson lost some offensive luster in his first season with the Penguins, though he made up for it with a stronger two-way game and still had franchise-level results. He should be at that level again, especially if the Penguins figure out how to make their power play work.
On top of those two, Marcus Pettersson also grades out very well, giving Pittsburgh a strong trifecta at the top. It’s what’s after that’s worrying. Ryan Graves was supposed to complete the top four but was a complete disaster in his first year. The model projects a bounce-back — we’re not nearly as optimistic.
Current quality: 68th percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defenseman
We came very, very close to bumping New York ahead of Pittsburgh, largely because Adam Fox is far and away the best defenseman on either team. Ultimately, though, the Rangers’ relative lack of depth kept them in this spot. That’s due mainly to Ryan Lindgren’s regression in 2023-24 and the fact that Jacob Trouba is, overall, just OK.
The variable here is K’Andre Miller, whose production hasn’t yet met his potential. If he increases his offensive impact — not just in the form of points, either — the Rangers will likely deserve to move farther into the top 10. Miller is good, but the Rangers need more from him.
Current quality: 66th percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defenseman
The Islanders’ biggest strength has long been its backend, and that remains the case after a huge breakout year from Noah Dobson. His emergence toward franchise talent capably pushed Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock down into more fitting roles. An elevated season from Alex Romanov cements the top four as one that’s easily above league average.
If there’s one area of need here, it’s a decent No. 6 option to play alongside Scott Mayfield. That shouldn’t be too hard to find, and even if they don’t, Samuel Bolduc can work given the strength elsewhere.
Current quality: 63rd percentile
Looking for: Third-pair defenseman
The Devils are a tough case; if Dougie Hamilton returns from his pectoral injury without missing a step, if Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec improve in their second full NHL seasons and if John Marino bounces back from a rough 2023-24, New Jersey will have a top four that can compete with the best in the Eastern Conference.
That’s a lot of “ifs,” though, which puts us in wait-and-see mode. There’s tons to like about the Devils — and tons of variables.
Current quality: 75th percentile
Looking for: Franchise player, third-pair defenseman
Lucky for Ottawa, the team’s biggest need is probably on the roster. Everything that applied to Tim Stützle on our center list applies to Jake Sanderson, too. He’s on the precipice of being a franchise talent, and another strong season at both ends of the ice should get him there.
Sanderson reaching that level would allow a lot of things to fall into place for the Senators, who would then boast a very strong top four. Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun still qualify as top pair defensemen, while Artem Zub is an unheralded defensive No. 3. If Erik Brannstrom can take a step toward being an everyday top-four option, the Senators look set.
That last thought might be exactly why the team has been rumored to be dangling Chychrun in a Linus Ullmark deal — a savvy bet to trade from a position of strength to address a major area of weakness.
Current quality: 69th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defensemen, third-pair defenseman
Florida is entering the offseason with several question marks in their defensive lineup — Brandon Montour is a UFA, as are Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Dmitry Kulikov — but they’ve taken care of the tough stuff. Gustav Forsling is projected to be a top-16 defenseman after his breakout season, and Aaron Ekblad remains first-pair-caliber.
Filling out a roster is a whole lot easier with those pieces in place. Florida’s track record of identifying and/or developing contributors on the second and third pairs makes us even more optimistic that they’ll figure things out over the summer.
Current quality: 45th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman
When the margins are thin, the tie goes to high-end talent and pure potential. With Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power at the top of the lineup, it’s hard not to like the Sabres’ situation. They’ve got the hard parts covered. It’s the rest of the lineup where there are some warts.
Buffalo’s biggest need is a legitimate top-four defenseman. Mattias Samuelsson is a solid defensive No. 4 who can handle tough minutes, but for now, the Sabres don’t have a slam dunk option otherwise. That very well could be Bowen Byram, but his first impression with the Sabres lacked some two-way substance. He’s the best bet, and a breakout year in line with his skill could vault the Sabres into the top 10. But that’s a big if, given what he’s shown over the last couple of seasons.
Current quality: 44th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman
The Wild are a testament to the importance of figuring out things at the top of the lineup. Jared Spurgeon still grades out incredibly well, Jonas Brodin is holding steady as a first-pair guy and Brock Faber showed major potential in his first full NHL season. They’re not the biggest names, and their games certainly aren’t flashy, but they’re still more than enough.
Minnesota’s issue, though, is the enormous gap in quality between those three and their other options. Bringing in another top-four left shot to play ahead of (or behind) Brodin would drop Jacob Middleton down to a more suitable spot in the lineup.
Current quality: 48th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman
The likely loss of Matt Roy leaves a large hole in the Kings’ top four. They had a pretty strong set-up last season, led by the still franchise-caliber Drew Doughty and two other worthy top-four pieces. But Roy was the No. 2 on the team and he won’t be easy to replace.
The hope is that Brandt Clarke can fill that void. He certainly has the pedigree, but his first couple of tastes of NHL action have left a bit to be desired. Clarke has struggled in heavily sheltered minutes, and though he has obvious top-four potential, the Kings need it sooner rather than later.
Morgan Rielly is a first-pair guy but the Maple Leafs need help. (Richard A. Whittaker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Current quality: 59th percentile
Looking for: Top-four defenseman, third-pair defenseman
Sometimes, the model requires a bit of a sanity check. In this case, we had to apply it to the projection of Timothy Liljegren. He’s a useful player when he’s in the lineup, but he isn’t nearly good enough to push the Leafs up with teams such as the Lightning.
With that accounted for, the Leafs are dealing with a group that’s short on high-end talent and depth but has two solid-enough first-pair guys in Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe. Could be better, could be worse. A legitimately solid third pair would go a long way.
Current quality: 54th percentile
Looking for: Top-pair defenseman, third-pair defenseman
With Dylan DeMelo departing, the Jets have a pretty big hole to fill. The gap between Josh Morrissey and the team’s next-best defenseman is a mile wide and it separates the Jets from other teams that have a franchise defender on the roster. Morrissey is fantastic, but he needs help.
The Jets have two defenders who grade out at a top-four rate, but that feels more like a technicality than what a playoff-caliber team should be comfortable with. None of Neal Pionk, Nate Schmidt or Dylan Samberg feel like safe bets to drive a second pair.
Current quality: 56th percentile
Looking for: Top-pair defenseman
Vince Dunn adequately followed up his breakout season, but he can’t do it by himself. That applies to the Kraken’s blue line and the organization overall — someone, at some position, needs to join him in the franchise bucket, or they’ll continue to spin their wheels.
It’s not that there’s a glaring individual issue here, either. Seattle’s group, led by Adam Larsson, isn’t bad. Too much “not bad,” though, can be a real problem. Ryker Evans could help as a second-pair guy after seeing a chunk of time as a 22-year-old last season, though it’s no guarantee that his results translate in a non-sheltered role.
Current quality: 56th percentile
Looking for: Top-pair defenseman, top-four defenseman
The Predators have arguably a top-five defenseman in the world in Roman Josi, but that alone can’t save them.
After trading Ryan McDonagh, the team’s depth chart after Josi feels thinner than their Cup chances do with the current roster. Their options for the No. 2 defenseman on the team are Dante Fabbro, Spencer Stastney, Jeremy Lauzon and Luke Schenn. Maybe one of them can cut it as a No. 4, but that still leaves Nashville without a No. 2 or No. 3. The Predators have their work cut out for them.
Current quality: 50th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-four defenseman
We know the story with the Flames’ forwards, and the story with their blue line isn’t much different. They’ve got enough solid pros such as Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson to win games, but not many. As long as they’re around — to say nothing of forwards like Nazem Kadri, Andrew Mangiapane and Jonathan Huberdeau — Calgary seems ticketed for the mushy middle.
One interesting note: The model is high on Daniil Miromanov, one of the pieces Calgary acquired for Noah Hanifin. He’s a right shot who had seven points in 20 games after the trade and seems set to play with Weegar on the first pair.
Current quality: 36th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defenseman
The Flyers have stability, with six NHL-caliber defensemen — they’re all just slotted one spot higher than they should be. As usual, what they need more than anything is franchise talent.
That one guy would put Travis Sanheim in the No. 2 spot with Cam York, Nick Seeler, and Rasmus Ristolainen falling behind him. Easier said than done.
Everything hinges on the progression of Jamie Drysdale, who has dealt with severe injury and consistency issues at the NHL level. For now, he doesn’t look like much more than a No. 5, but the 22-year-old has potential for more given his pedigree. A leap from Drysdale would solve a lot of issues.
24. Utah HC
Current quality: 39th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defenseman, top-four defenseman
If there are fans in Salt Lake City looking for solid defensive play, they’re probably going to be disappointed. Utah has Sean Durzi, who solidified his status as a legit first-pair guy, then … eh. Juuso Valimaki has the second-best projection in the group, but that’s goosed a bit by his power-play time. He’s likely a fringe second-pair player and not much else — and behind him, there’s another drop.
Current quality: 23rd percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defenseman
There’s a big gap between what the Canadiens currently have on the roster and what the future has in store for them. Few teams bolster a defender pipeline like the Canadiens, who have David Reinbacher and Lane Hutson waiting to jump onto a blue line that already features Kaiden Guhle playing tough minutes.
That could make the Canadiens a future power from the back end, but until then things are dicey. Mike Matheson is miscast as a No. 1, and the depth after him and Guhle is pretty dicey.
Current quality: 23rd percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defenseman
John Carlson chugs along, projecting to provide first-pair value as a 34-year-old despite a drop in his once-elite power-play production. The Caps are trying to cobble together a playoff-caliber roster, and that’s a tough ask, given their depth chart. At least one of Rasmus Sandin or Martin Fehervary needs to show they’re capable not just of playing alongside Carlson, but playing well. They’re both projected as fringe second-pair guys, though.
Current quality: 14th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-four defenseman
The good news for the Blackhawks is that they’re working with an actual top pair. Alex Vlasic and Seth Jones are a terrific start, with Vlasic especially looking like a future defensive stud. If Kevin Korchinski can figure out what to do when the puck is not on his stick, the Blackhawks are working with a solid baseline.
It’s the rest — and the fact that neither Vlasic nor Jones are franchise-level — that’s holding the team back. To start climbing out of the basement, Chicago needs one of those three guys to turn into a legit star and to add some depth to support them. A true top-four guy should be at the top of this summer’s wish list. If not, it’s going to be another long season.
Current quality: 14th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defenseman
Zach Werenski is a really good player — but he’s not elite, and he’s not good enough to drag the rest of the Blue Jackets’ blue line any farther than this spot. For example, we both like him more individually than Vlasic and Jones, but if he’s part of a pairing with Damon Severson, Chicago’s guys have him beat pretty handily.
Ivan Provorov, Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean, and Erik Gudbarnson all carry below-average projections without much reason for optimism, Provorov’s early run in Philadelphia aside. Beyond that, David Jiricek has pedigree, but he played just 43 games as a rookie last season.
Current quality: 19th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defensemen
Collectively, we’re getting tired of talking about the Blues’ blue-line woes. Between Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk, Torey Krug and Nick Leddy the Blues don’t really have a top four problem — they have a star-power problem. None of the four can be seriously counted on as a top-pair threat on a playoff team, and it’s hard to move up the ranks given that constraint. Getting a legitimate top-pair defenseman with offensive ability to play with Parako this season is a big priority.
Current quality: 5th percentile
Looking for: Franchise player, top-pair defenseman, top-four defensemen
This isn’t meant to be an indictment of Moritz Seider — we believe in him as a future franchise-type defender, even with some so-so projections for this season. It is, however, an indictment of the players Detroit has surrounded him with. There’s not a second-pair type in the bunch (Jake Walman probably comes the closest). Seider alone is good enough to give Detroit the edge over, say, Anaheim, but he can’t do it all by himself. Despite all the money Detroit has spent over the past few years, the Red Wings are still three top-four defensemen short.
31. Anaheim Ducks
Current quality: 8th percentile
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defensemen
This time next season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Ducks as a big-time riser. Between Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov, the future looks very bright in Anaheim, as there are some clear internal solutions to the franchise’s lack of true top-pair defensemen.
Right now, though? That’s a tough sell. Cam Fowler and Radko Gudas are probably closer to second-pair caliber, and the depth behind the team’s top group isn’t helping.
The Ducks need to start seeing some growth across the board. They have good players, but they have a serious lack of great players.
Current quality: 0th percentile (not a typo)
Looking for: Franchise talent, top-pair defensemen, top-four defenseman
Credit to Ty Emberson, a waiver claim (via the Rangers) who wound up looking like a legit NHL defenseman before a season-ending injury in March. Beyond him, the Sharks have a whole bunch of fringe guys — some of whom played huge minutes this season. Macklin Celebrini is on the way, so mission accomplished, but the less said about this group, the better.
(Top photos of Noah Hanifin, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang: Stephen R. Sylvanie; Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
