Speed is the name of the game. Just as major-league teams are working on models that can help them make decisions faster, so do public analysts trying to help people beat the line, win that overall prize, or at least beat their college friends in that fantasy league.
In the effort to make better decisions faster, we have a few statistics that can aid our efforts:
• Fastball velocity stabilizes quickly — three starts should reliably predict the rest of the season.
• Relatedly, Stuff+ becomes meaningful after as little as one start, at least when it comes to fastballs and sliders.
• Strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful small-sample tools.
Man, it doesn’t look so impressive when you list it out that way, but it describes the best tools you have at your fingertips when looking at a starter who’s only headed to the bump two or three times. But when you look at some of the biggest risers and fallers, you’ll notice something has changed regarding these three outputs.
The other huge thing that makes this that much more difficult is the role of injury. Some risers (like Corbin Burnes) just stepped up a couple of spots because of the attrition ahead of them. Some risers (like Kyle Bradish and Justin Verlander) moved up because they moved closer to their return date from injury. Some fell a little (like Bobby Miller) due to what might be a short-term injury, and some fell off the list completely. Perhaps the toughest ranks are those who were injury-prone in the past but look fine now — players like Freddy Peralta, Garrett Crochet, and Nick Lodolo may have moved up further than they should have due to recency bias. But they’re healthy now! We’ll leave Jeff Zimmerman’s health ratings on there for now as a reminder, though.
Put it all together and add a little feel on top — just don’t stare too hard at a pitcher’s current ERA. We don’t even have them listed here because that statistic is terrible at predicting the future in small samples. Look away!
Here’s a Google doc for subscribers that has full rest-of-season Stuff+ driven projections for over 5,000 pitchers (courtesy Jordan Rosenblum), minor-league Stuff+ numbers for Triple A and some of Single A, and a working version of these ranks that is easier to port over into Excel.
Good luck.
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Stuff+ told us before the season that Burnes had a great curveball that he could feature more, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s done exactly that in Baltimore. He’s also seen his fastball velocity return to 2022 levels. The result has been vintage Burnes, at a time when it seems like all the aces are falling around him. Long-term park factors are funky in Baltimore — with the new dimensions, Burnes should easily put up a low-threes ERA with plenty of strikeouts.
Stuff+ told us before the season that Burnes had a great curveball that he could feature more, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s done exactly that in Baltimore. He’s also seen his fastball velocity return to 2022 levels. The result has been vintage Burnes, at a time when it seems like all the aces are falling around him. Long-term park factors are funky in Baltimore — with the new dimensions, Burnes should easily put up a low-threes ERA with plenty of strikeouts.
Stuff+ told us before the season that Burnes had a great curveball that he could feature more, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s done exactly that in Baltimore. He’s also seen his fastball velocity return to 2022 levels. The result has been vintage Burnes, at a time when it seems like all the aces are falling around him. Long-term park factors are funky in Baltimore — with the new dimensions, Burnes should easily put up a low-threes ERA with plenty of strikeouts.
The new sweeper has worked wonders for Wheeler. Despite losing a tick-plus off the fastball, that sweeper has pushed him to what would be a career-high strikeout rate if it came in a full season. His customary command is there, the results are fine and the wins should come, even if they haven’t yet. The best news is that the velocity looked to recover a little in his last start, and the early downturn could have been weather-related.
The new sweeper has worked wonders for Wheeler. Despite losing a tick-plus off the fastball, that sweeper has pushed him to what would be a career-high strikeout rate if it came in a full season. His customary command is there, the results are fine and the wins should come, even if they haven’t yet. The best news is that the velocity looked to recover a little in his last start, and the early downturn could have been weather-related.
The new sweeper has worked wonders for Wheeler. Despite losing a tick-plus off the fastball, that sweeper has pushed him to what would be a career-high strikeout rate if it came in a full season. His customary command is there, the results are fine and the wins should come, even if they haven’t yet. The best news is that the velocity looked to recover a little in his last start, and the early downturn could have been weather-related.
A spring Stuff+ champion on the back of some pitch-shape changes and a velocity surge, Skubal has ported every bit of that energy into the regular season. Finding things to worry about seems like picking nits. Yes, he has some injury history. Yes, his velocity has faded in some of his starts. He’s still getting stretched out, and injury seems like a fact of life these days. Otherwise, there don’t seem to be any worries here, and he might end up the best fantasy pitcher when we sum it all up.
A spring Stuff+ champion on the back of some pitch-shape changes and a velocity surge, Skubal has ported every bit of that energy into the regular season. Finding things to worry about seems like picking nits. Yes, he has some injury history. Yes, his velocity has faded in some of his starts. He’s still getting stretched out, and injury seems like a fact of life these days. Otherwise, there don’t seem to be any worries here, and he might end up the best fantasy pitcher when we sum it all up.
A spring Stuff+ champion on the back of some pitch-shape changes and a velocity surge, Skubal has ported every bit of that energy into the regular season. Finding things to worry about seems like picking nits. Yes, he has some injury history. Yes, his velocity has faded in some of his starts. He’s still getting stretched out, and injury seems like a fact of life these days. Otherwise, there don’t seem to be any worries here, and he might end up the best fantasy pitcher when we sum it all up.
The universe has a sense of a humor. Or at least, it does if Glasnow is going to put together a mostly-healthy season when the rest of the pitching world crumbles down around us. On the mound, the Dodgers righty has added a power two-seamer that’s every bit as nasty as the rest of his offerings, pushed his slider back to the best it’s ever been and is even locating pitches at an above-average rate. He’s healthy now, don’t worry about tomorrow.
The universe has a sense of a humor. Or at least, it does if Glasnow is going to put together a mostly-healthy season when the rest of the pitching world crumbles down around us. On the mound, the Dodgers righty has added a power two-seamer that’s every bit as nasty as the rest of his offerings, pushed his slider back to the best it’s ever been and is even locating pitches at an above-average rate. He’s healthy now, don’t worry about tomorrow.
The universe has a sense of a humor. Or at least, it does if Glasnow is going to put together a mostly-healthy season when the rest of the pitching world crumbles down around us. On the mound, the Dodgers righty has added a power two-seamer that’s every bit as nasty as the rest of his offerings, pushed his slider back to the best it’s ever been and is even locating pitches at an above-average rate. He’s healthy now, don’t worry about tomorrow.
Peralta has answered all of the preseason questions but one. His up-and-down fastball is up. The slider he improved last season picked up right where it left off. The strikeout-minus-walk rate that led all starters in the second half? It’s back, he’s right at the top again. Health-wise he looks good, but there is some history there that can’t be ignored. There are enough positives to push him up to here from the mid-teens, at least.
Peralta has answered all of the preseason questions but one. His up-and-down fastball is up. The slider he improved last season picked up right where it left off. The strikeout-minus-walk rate that led all starters in the second half? It’s back, he’s right at the top again. Health-wise he looks good, but there is some history there that can’t be ignored. There are enough positives to push him up to here from the mid-teens, at least.
Peralta has answered all of the preseason questions but one. His up-and-down fastball is up. The slider he improved last season picked up right where it left off. The strikeout-minus-walk rate that led all starters in the second half? It’s back, he’s right at the top again. Health-wise he looks good, but there is some history there that can’t be ignored. There are enough positives to push him up to here from the mid-teens, at least.
Like with this teammate Burnes, you can expect Rodriguez to beat this ERA projection. He now has two fastballs and two secondaries that are elite in terms of physical characteristics, so it’s a full arsenal. Even using last year’s data to improve the sample size, he’s shown above-average command of four pitches, too. The only question mark is the fact that he lacks a slider. The cutter isn’t great — overuse of that pitch early last season is what got him in trouble — and he hasn’t consistently thrown a hard breaking ball. Otherwise, he’s golden Grayson.
Like with this teammate Burnes, you can expect Rodriguez to beat this ERA projection. He now has two fastballs and two secondaries that are elite in terms of physical characteristics, so it’s a full arsenal. Even using last year’s data to improve the sample size, he’s shown above-average command of four pitches, too. The only question mark is the fact that he lacks a slider. The cutter isn’t great — overuse of that pitch early last season is what got him in trouble — and he hasn’t consistently thrown a hard breaking ball. Otherwise, he’s golden Grayson.
Like with this teammate Burnes, you can expect Rodriguez to beat this ERA projection. He now has two fastballs and two secondaries that are elite in terms of physical characteristics, so it’s a full arsenal. Even using last year’s data to improve the sample size, he’s shown above-average command of four pitches, too. The only question mark is the fact that he lacks a slider. The cutter isn’t great — overuse of that pitch early last season is what got him in trouble — and he hasn’t consistently thrown a hard breaking ball. Otherwise, he’s golden Grayson.
Who knows if a league-average slider is the best that Webb can produce? It’s certainly possible, given his excellence at the changeup, that he’s just not going to throw a great breaking ball. But, given all the attrition at the top of the league, his elite sinker and changeup, and his great home park, Webb rides into the top five based on maybe the highest floor in the big leagues.
Who knows if a league-average slider is the best that Webb can produce? It’s certainly possible, given his excellence at the changeup, that he’s just not going to throw a great breaking ball. But, given all the attrition at the top of the league, his elite sinker and changeup, and his great home park, Webb rides into the top five based on maybe the highest floor in the big leagues.
Who knows if a league-average slider is the best that Webb can produce? It’s certainly possible, given his excellence at the changeup, that he’s just not going to throw a great breaking ball. But, given all the attrition at the top of the league, his elite sinker and changeup, and his great home park, Webb rides into the top five based on maybe the highest floor in the big leagues.
The trademark command is still there for Kirby, and despite a tiny bit of downturn on the radar gun, the stuff is about the same as it was before. Maybe the split-finger was a bump in the road — it was the one pitch he couldn’t command, and it seemed to contribute to some very un-Kirby-like games. Now he’s dialed back its usage a bit and should be right back to giving you five or six strikeouts and fewer than two walks per game. There’s no reason to push him down very far.
The trademark command is still there for Kirby, and despite a tiny bit of downturn on the radar gun, the stuff is about the same as it was before. Maybe the split-finger was a bump in the road — it was the one pitch he couldn’t command, and it seemed to contribute to some very un-Kirby-like games. Now he’s dialed back its usage a bit and should be right back to giving you five or six strikeouts and fewer than two walks per game. There’s no reason to push him down very far.
The trademark command is still there for Kirby, and despite a tiny bit of downturn on the radar gun, the stuff is about the same as it was before. Maybe the split-finger was a bump in the road — it was the one pitch he couldn’t command, and it seemed to contribute to some very un-Kirby-like games. Now he’s dialed back its usage a bit and should be right back to giving you five or six strikeouts and fewer than two walks per game. There’s no reason to push him down very far.
Nobody releases the ball closer to the plate than Gilbert. The King of Extension gets more out of his average-ish movement because batters have less time to make their decisions — his perceived velocity is a tick and a half higher than the number on the radar gun. This year, he’s showing the widest arsenal of his career, with a new splitter nobody is hitting, a cutter that’s working, a hard gyro slider and the best curveball of his career. He doesn’t have the command of Kirby, but he’s becoming more of a pitcher with every start.
Nobody releases the ball closer to the plate than Gilbert. The King of Extension gets more out of his average-ish movement because batters have less time to make their decisions — his perceived velocity is a tick and a half higher than the number on the radar gun. This year, he’s showing the widest arsenal of his career, with a new splitter nobody is hitting, a cutter that’s working, a hard gyro slider and the best curveball of his career. He doesn’t have the command of Kirby, but he’s becoming more of a pitcher with every start.
Nobody releases the ball closer to the plate than Gilbert. The King of Extension gets more out of his average-ish movement because batters have less time to make their decisions — his perceived velocity is a tick and a half higher than the number on the radar gun. This year, he’s showing the widest arsenal of his career, with a new splitter nobody is hitting, a cutter that’s working, a hard gyro slider and the best curveball of his career. He doesn’t have the command of Kirby, but he’s becoming more of a pitcher with every start.
There are some missing strikeouts here, but before we worry too much about where they went, it’s probably instructive to notice that his swinging-strike rate — which has a larger denominator than his strikeout rate — is almost exactly where it was last season. He’s getting fewer swings on his curveball, his sweeper is a half tick slower … and that’s about it. There’s not really enough here to change your prior opinions about López.
There are some missing strikeouts here, but before we worry too much about where they went, it’s probably instructive to notice that his swinging-strike rate — which has a larger denominator than his strikeout rate — is almost exactly where it was last season. He’s getting fewer swings on his curveball, his sweeper is a half tick slower … and that’s about it. There’s not really enough here to change your prior opinions about López.
There are some missing strikeouts here, but before we worry too much about where they went, it’s probably instructive to notice that his swinging-strike rate — which has a larger denominator than his strikeout rate — is almost exactly where it was last season. He’s getting fewer swings on his curveball, his sweeper is a half tick slower … and that’s about it. There’s not really enough here to change your prior opinions about López.
It’s true that Castillo struggles early in the season, and that his fastball velocity is often down in the colder months (even though it’s down also when compared to last April). It’s also true that his walk and strikeout rates are fine. Around 14 percent ls a league average strikeout-minus-walk rate, and he’s well clear of that. Lastly, it’s also true that his projection is worse than some pitchers below him in these rankings. You’ve got to rank this one with a little feel.
It’s true that Castillo struggles early in the season, and that his fastball velocity is often down in the colder months (even though it’s down also when compared to last April). It’s also true that his walk and strikeout rates are fine. Around 14 percent ls a league average strikeout-minus-walk rate, and he’s well clear of that. Lastly, it’s also true that his projection is worse than some pitchers below him in these rankings. You’ve got to rank this one with a little feel.
It’s true that Castillo struggles early in the season, and that his fastball velocity is often down in the colder months (even though it’s down also when compared to last April). It’s also true that his walk and strikeout rates are fine. Around 14 percent ls a league average strikeout-minus-walk rate, and he’s well clear of that. Lastly, it’s also true that his projection is worse than some pitchers below him in these rankings. You’ve got to rank this one with a little feel.
Yamamoto has a top-ten strikeout rate among healthy starting pitchers, so it’s not all gone wrong in Los Angeles. The fastball, though, it isn’t as good as it was in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic, so he’s going to have to learn how to jab with the fastball and use his elite splitter and curve to finish off batters. Despite the bumps in the way so far, there’s still a lot to like here.
Yamamoto has a top-ten strikeout rate among healthy starting pitchers, so it’s not all gone wrong in Los Angeles. The fastball, though, it isn’t as good as it was in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic, so he’s going to have to learn how to jab with the fastball and use his elite splitter and curve to finish off batters. Despite the bumps in the way so far, there’s still a lot to like here.
Yamamoto has a top-ten strikeout rate among healthy starting pitchers, so it’s not all gone wrong in Los Angeles. The fastball, though, it isn’t as good as it was in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic, so he’s going to have to learn how to jab with the fastball and use his elite splitter and curve to finish off batters. Despite the bumps in the way so far, there’s still a lot to like here.
Who knows why this projection is still over four. At this point, Stuff+ has seen enough to call him an ace, and I’m going with it. He’s added ride to the four-seam, drop to the curveball and a tick to the cutter. He has a legitimate five-pitch mix and commands the four-seam and slider well, so he’s always got a base, but from time to time the rest of his pitches can get away from him. When that happens, the offense behind him is improving and the park can clean up some messes. He’s an ace.
Who knows why this projection is still over four. At this point, Stuff+ has seen enough to call him an ace, and I’m going with it. He’s added ride to the four-seam, drop to the curveball and a tick to the cutter. He has a legitimate five-pitch mix and commands the four-seam and slider well, so he’s always got a base, but from time to time the rest of his pitches can get away from him. When that happens, the offense behind him is improving and the park can clean up some messes. He’s an ace.
Who knows why this projection is still over four. At this point, Stuff+ has seen enough to call him an ace, and I’m going with it. He’s added ride to the four-seam, drop to the curveball and a tick to the cutter. He has a legitimate five-pitch mix and commands the four-seam and slider well, so he’s always got a base, but from time to time the rest of his pitches can get away from him. When that happens, the offense behind him is improving and the park can clean up some messes. He’s an ace.
Though Stuff+ doesn’t like Cease’s 65 mph changeup and self-described “troll pitch,” it loves his four-seam and slider, and that’s a great foundation in today’s game. He’s also added a sweeper and two ticks to his curveball, so he’s threatening to be a three-breaking-ball monster. Yes, his fastball command is still shaky, but he can place the hard slider well enough to wiggle out of trouble, and his park and team situation is great. He’s a prime example of why you bet on stuff.
Though Stuff+ doesn’t like Cease’s 65 mph changeup and self-described “troll pitch,” it loves his four-seam and slider, and that’s a great foundation in today’s game. He’s also added a sweeper and two ticks to his curveball, so he’s threatening to be a three-breaking-ball monster. Yes, his fastball command is still shaky, but he can place the hard slider well enough to wiggle out of trouble, and his park and team situation is great. He’s a prime example of why you bet on stuff.
Though Stuff+ doesn’t like Cease’s 65 mph changeup and self-described “troll pitch,” it loves his four-seam and slider, and that’s a great foundation in today’s game. He’s also added a sweeper and two ticks to his curveball, so he’s threatening to be a three-breaking-ball monster. Yes, his fastball command is still shaky, but he can place the hard slider well enough to wiggle out of trouble, and his park and team situation is great. He’s a prime example of why you bet on stuff.
The velocity is up, the swinging strikes are back to where they were five years ago, the command looks fine, and the homer rate is fine so far. It’s all systems go for Sale. If you’re wondering why the ERA is still in the mid-fours, it’s because of some luck with baserunners scoring. He’s stranding two-thirds of his baserunners after spending his entire career stranding more than three quarters. That number is often a source of early noise. Other than the injury history, there’s no reason to be out on this Sale.
The velocity is up, the swinging strikes are back to where they were five years ago, the command looks fine, and the homer rate is fine so far. It’s all systems go for Sale. If you’re wondering why the ERA is still in the mid-fours, it’s because of some luck with baserunners scoring. He’s stranding two-thirds of his baserunners after spending his entire career stranding more than three quarters. That number is often a source of early noise. Other than the injury history, there’s no reason to be out on this Sale.
The velocity is up, the swinging strikes are back to where they were five years ago, the command looks fine, and the homer rate is fine so far. It’s all systems go for Sale. If you’re wondering why the ERA is still in the mid-fours, it’s because of some luck with baserunners scoring. He’s stranding two-thirds of his baserunners after spending his entire career stranding more than three quarters. That number is often a source of early noise. Other than the injury history, there’s no reason to be out on this Sale.
Despite once again showing his elite command, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate regress to where it was before he joined the Rays. Strangely, so has his pitch selection. He threw his cutter and curve more and his fastball in his first season in Tampa, and has returned back to much closer to his career rates so far this season. His breaking balls and sinker are still good pitches, but his average four-seam is just going to get a little worse every season until his command isn’t enough to overcome so-so stuff.
Despite once again showing his elite command, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate regress to where it was before he joined the Rays. Strangely, so has his pitch selection. He threw his cutter and curve more and his fastball in his first season in Tampa, and has returned back to much closer to his career rates so far this season. His breaking balls and sinker are still good pitches, but his average four-seam is just going to get a little worse every season until his command isn’t enough to overcome so-so stuff.
Despite once again showing his elite command, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate regress to where it was before he joined the Rays. Strangely, so has his pitch selection. He threw his cutter and curve more and his fastball in his first season in Tampa, and has returned back to much closer to his career rates so far this season. His breaking balls and sinker are still good pitches, but his average four-seam is just going to get a little worse every season until his command isn’t enough to overcome so-so stuff.
Gallen’s velocity is slowly returning, maybe. Two of his best three games by that metric have come most recently at least. But even those games — where he averaged around 93 mph — are more than a full tick lower than where he sat last April. It probably matters some, given he’s dropping from average velo for a starter to below, but he’s also a wide-arsenal guy with decent command. His strikeout and walk rates haven’t suffered, and his ERA is pristine. Still, you can’t help but notice the diminished stuff.
Gallen’s velocity is slowly returning, maybe. Two of his best three games by that metric have come most recently at least. But even those games — where he averaged around 93 mph — are more than a full tick lower than where he sat last April. It probably matters some, given he’s dropping from average velo for a starter to below, but he’s also a wide-arsenal guy with decent command. His strikeout and walk rates haven’t suffered, and his ERA is pristine. Still, you can’t help but notice the diminished stuff.
Gallen’s velocity is slowly returning, maybe. Two of his best three games by that metric have come most recently at least. But even those games — where he averaged around 93 mph — are more than a full tick lower than where he sat last April. It probably matters some, given he’s dropping from average velo for a starter to below, but he’s also a wide-arsenal guy with decent command. His strikeout and walk rates haven’t suffered, and his ERA is pristine. Still, you can’t help but notice the diminished stuff.
In his start this week, Gausman finally got his fastball back to where it was last year, and put in a good effort against the Yankees. Maybe he’ll be fine! There’s just this little old fact that he’s a two-pitch pitcher who will probably never have a good breaking ball, which means that when the fastball velocity finally does stay down for good, it’ll probably have an outsized effect on his outcomes. For now he’s a hold, though it doesn’t seem like a top-three finish in the Cy Young Award race is coming this season.
In his start this week, Gausman finally got his fastball back to where it was last year, and put in a good effort against the Yankees. Maybe he’ll be fine! There’s just this little old fact that he’s a two-pitch pitcher who will probably never have a good breaking ball, which means that when the fastball velocity finally does stay down for good, it’ll probably have an outsized effect on his outcomes. For now he’s a hold, though it doesn’t seem like a top-three finish in the Cy Young Award race is coming this season.
In his start this week, Gausman finally got his fastball back to where it was last year, and put in a good effort against the Yankees. Maybe he’ll be fine! There’s just this little old fact that he’s a two-pitch pitcher who will probably never have a good breaking ball, which means that when the fastball velocity finally does stay down for good, it’ll probably have an outsized effect on his outcomes. For now he’s a hold, though it doesn’t seem like a top-three finish in the Cy Young Award race is coming this season.
Stuff+ has never loved Ryan’s fastball, but it’s always gotten good results. That stat can be finnicky with changeups, so maybe the average rating on the splitter is no big deal — it’s worth pointing out that batters are slugging .400 against that pitch, though. He moved to a hard slider with a spike grip this offseason, though, and that pitch is working really well against lefties and righties. The chance that he has a full array of weapons — four strong now — makes it worth believing in his stellar strikeout-minus-walk rate. That top-five number is a powerful predictor, and it just seems like it’s his year.
Stuff+ has never loved Ryan’s fastball, but it’s always gotten good results. That stat can be finnicky with changeups, so maybe the average rating on the splitter is no big deal — it’s worth pointing out that batters are slugging .400 against that pitch, though. He moved to a hard slider with a spike grip this offseason, though, and that pitch is working really well against lefties and righties. The chance that he has a full array of weapons — four strong now — makes it worth believing in his stellar strikeout-minus-walk rate. That top-five number is a powerful predictor, and it just seems like it’s his year.
Stuff+ has never loved Ryan’s fastball, but it’s always gotten good results. That stat can be finnicky with changeups, so maybe the average rating on the splitter is no big deal — it’s worth pointing out that batters are slugging .400 against that pitch, though. He moved to a hard slider with a spike grip this offseason, though, and that pitch is working really well against lefties and righties. The chance that he has a full array of weapons — four strong now — makes it worth believing in his stellar strikeout-minus-walk rate. That top-five number is a powerful predictor, and it just seems like it’s his year.
The vertical approach angle for Imanaga’s fastball is elite, so it must be the poor extension and velocity that are dinging it when it comes to stuff metrics. Batters are hitting .308 off the splitter, but it’s a real weapon. He only uses the sweeper against leties, so he’s kind of a two-pitch pitcher against either hand. It’s not a perfect arsenal but it’s working pretty perfectly now and other than a trip to Boston, the schedule looks like it will smile down on the lefty in Chicago.
The vertical approach angle for Imanaga’s fastball is elite, so it must be the poor extension and velocity that are dinging it when it comes to stuff metrics. Batters are hitting .308 off the splitter, but it’s a real weapon. He only uses the sweeper against leties, so he’s kind of a two-pitch pitcher against either hand. It’s not a perfect arsenal but it’s working pretty perfectly now and other than a trip to Boston, the schedule looks like it will smile down on the lefty in Chicago.
The vertical approach angle for Imanaga’s fastball is elite, so it must be the poor extension and velocity that are dinging it when it comes to stuff metrics. Batters are hitting .308 off the splitter, but it’s a real weapon. He only uses the sweeper against leties, so he’s kind of a two-pitch pitcher against either hand. It’s not a perfect arsenal but it’s working pretty perfectly now and other than a trip to Boston, the schedule looks like it will smile down on the lefty in Chicago.
Steele is already on his way back, as he’s got a bullpen session planned for this weekend. When he does come back we can return to the debate about whether he’s a two-pitch pitcher with low velocity that is doomed to fade again like last year once teams get a look at him, or if he’s got great feel for both of his pitches and can make them play like four (or more) depending on subtle changes in intent and location. Given that he’s 55 games into this version of himself, it’s probably not worth debating if he’s at least a good, capable starter in this league, though.
Steele is already on his way back, as he’s got a bullpen session planned for this weekend. When he does come back we can return to the debate about whether he’s a two-pitch pitcher with low velocity that is doomed to fade again like last year once teams get a look at him, or if he’s got great feel for both of his pitches and can make them play like four (or more) depending on subtle changes in intent and location. Given that he’s 55 games into this version of himself, it’s probably not worth debating if he’s at least a good, capable starter in this league, though.
Steele is already on his way back, as he’s got a bullpen session planned for this weekend. When he does come back we can return to the debate about whether he’s a two-pitch pitcher with low velocity that is doomed to fade again like last year once teams get a look at him, or if he’s got great feel for both of his pitches and can make them play like four (or more) depending on subtle changes in intent and location. Given that he’s 55 games into this version of himself, it’s probably not worth debating if he’s at least a good, capable starter in this league, though.
Where do you put a currently injured guy on a set of rankings that attempts to be relevant to players in all sorts of leagues? Given the upside in Miller’s case — proven by his ERA estimators, projections here, short-sample strikeout rates and even the radar gun — you keep him near the top of the rankings and imply that people shouldn’t drop him even if they don’t have many injured list slots. The good news is that Miller is getting ready to throw again. The bad news is that he throws super hard and also very close to his maximum velocity, both markers for possible injuries in the future.
Where do you put a currently injured guy on a set of rankings that attempts to be relevant to players in all sorts of leagues? Given the upside in Miller’s case — proven by his ERA estimators, projections here, short-sample strikeout rates and even the radar gun — you keep him near the top of the rankings and imply that people shouldn’t drop him even if they don’t have many injured list slots. The good news is that Miller is getting ready to throw again. The bad news is that he throws super hard and also very close to his maximum velocity, both markers for possible injuries in the future.
Where do you put a currently injured guy on a set of rankings that attempts to be relevant to players in all sorts of leagues? Given the upside in Miller’s case — proven by his ERA estimators, projections here, short-sample strikeout rates and even the radar gun — you keep him near the top of the rankings and imply that people shouldn’t drop him even if they don’t have many injured list slots. The good news is that Miller is getting ready to throw again. The bad news is that he throws super hard and also very close to his maximum velocity, both markers for possible injuries in the future.
One of the toughest ranks in the top 25, Nola sneaks in based on track record and good projections, but there are some red flags here. After a few cold games that contributed to fastball velocities closer to 90 than 93, he came out and averaged 92.4 in his last outing — which was still worse than any outing last year after June. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is shockingly poor, and though he struck out nine and walked one in his last start, it was against the Rockies, so it might not tell us a whole lot. Then again, Nola’s velo was down early last season and he gradually ramped it up. His curveball regained some of its lost movement from last season and now he’s got three fastballs to play with (and his customary command). He might be fine.
One of the toughest ranks in the top 25, Nola sneaks in based on track record and good projections, but there are some red flags here. After a few cold games that contributed to fastball velocities closer to 90 than 93, he came out and averaged 92.4 in his last outing — which was still worse than any outing last year after June. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is shockingly poor, and though he struck out nine and walked one in his last start, it was against the Rockies, so it might not tell us a whole lot. Then again, Nola’s velo was down early last season and he gradually ramped it up. His curveball regained some of its lost movement from last season and now he’s got three fastballs to play with (and his customary command). He might be fine.
One of the toughest ranks in the top 25, Nola sneaks in based on track record and good projections, but there are some red flags here. After a few cold games that contributed to fastball velocities closer to 90 than 93, he came out and averaged 92.4 in his last outing — which was still worse than any outing last year after June. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is shockingly poor, and though he struck out nine and walked one in his last start, it was against the Rockies, so it might not tell us a whole lot. Then again, Nola’s velo was down early last season and he gradually ramped it up. His curveball regained some of its lost movement from last season and now he’s got three fastballs to play with (and his customary command). He might be fine.
Snell may be a little behind everyone else due to the drawn out contract negotiations that landed him in San Francisco, but he never had great command to begin with, and some of his first two games looked like his catcher just wasn’t famiilar with his stuff. Patrick Bailey can usually frame with the best of them, so it’s probably safe to assume some improvement when it comes to walks. In the meantime, he retains his rank based on a great home park, good early velocity, and the fact that the strikeout stuff still seems to be there.
Snell may be a little behind everyone else due to the drawn out contract negotiations that landed him in San Francisco, but he never had great command to begin with, and some of his first two games looked like his catcher just wasn’t famiilar with his stuff. Patrick Bailey can usually frame with the best of them, so it’s probably safe to assume some improvement when it comes to walks. In the meantime, he retains his rank based on a great home park, good early velocity, and the fact that the strikeout stuff still seems to be there.
Snell may be a little behind everyone else due to the drawn out contract negotiations that landed him in San Francisco, but he never had great command to begin with, and some of his first two games looked like his catcher just wasn’t famiilar with his stuff. Patrick Bailey can usually frame with the best of them, so it’s probably safe to assume some improvement when it comes to walks. In the meantime, he retains his rank based on a great home park, good early velocity, and the fact that the strikeout stuff still seems to be there.
Valdez came into this season as wild as he’s been since his first two years in the league, so his strikeout-minus-walk rate has been poor so far. But the elite ground-ball rate is still there, which provides him such great floor that he’s of course worth waiting around for, especially since he’s already playing catch. The weird thing is that, after getting poor command grades as a prospect, he’d righted ship in that regard … until the 2023 postseason. Strange blemish in an otherwise high-floor, high-ceiling package.
Valdez came into this season as wild as he’s been since his first two years in the league, so his strikeout-minus-walk rate has been poor so far. But the elite ground-ball rate is still there, which provides him such great floor that he’s of course worth waiting around for, especially since he’s already playing catch. The weird thing is that, after getting poor command grades as a prospect, he’d righted ship in that regard … until the 2023 postseason. Strange blemish in an otherwise high-floor, high-ceiling package.
Valdez came into this season as wild as he’s been since his first two years in the league, so his strikeout-minus-walk rate has been poor so far. But the elite ground-ball rate is still there, which provides him such great floor that he’s of course worth waiting around for, especially since he’s already playing catch. The weird thing is that, after getting poor command grades as a prospect, he’d righted ship in that regard … until the 2023 postseason. Strange blemish in an otherwise high-floor, high-ceiling package.
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of Freddy Peralta: Stacy Revere / Getty Images; Photo of Dylan Cease:
Brandon Sloter / Getty Images; Photo of Grayson Rodriguez: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
