Paul Skenes wasn’t the first player from the 2023 MLB Draft class to reach the major leagues. That honor went to Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who debuted last season. But Skenes’ electric MLB debut still came less than a year after he was selected with the first pick in the 2023 draft. With Schanuel, No. 4 pick Wyatt Langford and Skenes already in the big leagues, last year’s first round is living up to its pre-draft hype as one of the most talented in recent memory. And there may be a few more players from that first round set to join them in the major leagues before this season is done.
In this edition of our minor-league notebook, we highlight the recent promotions of two 2023 first-round picks on a fast track, along with three other notable promotions. We also highlight the opening of the Rookie-level Complex Leagues with a look at some prospects of note at that level.
Jacob Wilson promoted to Triple A
The next 2023 draft pick to make his MLB debut may very well be shortstop Jacob Wilson, who went sixth overall last season to the Oakland A’s. He came to pro ball from Grand Canyon University with outstanding bat-to-ball skills and a good glove, but significant questions about whether he could hit the ball hard enough to be a major-league regular. We may soon find out.
The A’s have been aggressive with Wilson’s development. He spent most of his pro debut season in High A, where he hit .318/.378/.455 in 23 games for Lansing. Wilson, the A’s No. 2 prospect, began this season in Double A and met little challenge at that level. In 22 games for Midland, he led the Texas League with a .455/.473/.705 line, hitting three homers and 13 doubles. The A’s promoted Wilson to Triple A on Thursday, and he’s gone 7-for-19 with two doubles in four games for Las Vegas since then.
There is, obviously, a lot to like about a 22-year-old batting well above .400 a full month into a season in the upper levels. Wilson’s contact skills have been as good as advertised (maybe even a little better). He struck out five times in his first 17 plate appearances this season; since then, he’s whiffed six times in 98 plate appearances. His .705 slugging percentage led the Texas League when he was promoted, so it wasn’t all empty contact. And his defense has been very good at shortstop. But there is one red flag worth monitoring as he takes his next step — through 26 games this season, he’s walked just three times.
Walks aren’t the be-all, end-all of plate discipline, of course, but — especially in the minor leagues — they can be a strong indication of whether a hitter is waiting for pitches he can drive or whether he’s chasing outside the zone. In Wilson’s case, despite the lack of strikeouts, his chase rate has been high (roughly 30 percent), meaning that many of the pitches he’s collecting hits on haven’t been in the strike zone. That takes special hand-eye coordination but also likely limits how hard he can hit those pitches. In the minor leagues that can be a sustainable approach against lesser pitching and defenders who don’t cover as much ground as big leaguers. In the majors, few hitters succeed with an all-contact approach (even Luis Arraez walks more frequently than Wilson has been).
A good example of Wilson’s approach can be seen in these highlights of his first three-hit game in Triple A. None of the three pitches he collected hits on were strikes and only one of those hits came in a two-strike count where you’d expect a hitter to expand the zone. Two of the hits came with exit velocities of 81 mph or lower, but ultimately it was a three-hit night.
Viva Jacob Wilson!
The top-ranked @Athletics prospect gets into the swing of things with a 3-hit night in his second @AviatorsLV outing 🎉 pic.twitter.com/7geUR2R7K9
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) May 10, 2024
Wilson’s approach may be challenged more now that he’s in Triple A, although he may not really have to make an adjustment until he’s in the big leagues. With Darell Hernaiz and Nick Allen both hurt, the A’s could be calling on Wilson in the not-so-distant future. With his glove and contact skills, he has a solid floor as at least a backup MLB infielder. Whether he can be an above-average everyday player will likely come down to how he refines that approach to swing at more favorable pitches and maximizes his bat-to-ball skills.
Rhett Lowder jumps to Double A
Rhett Lowder was the seventh overall pick in last year’s draft by the Cincinnati Reds and the second pitcher taken after Skenes. His match-up against Skenes in last June’s College World Series was one of the most memorable pitchers’ duels in recent college baseball history. The Wake Forest star threw 120 1/3 innings as a junior, so the Reds elected to save his professional debut for this season. He began the year in High A but made quick work of that level, posting a 2.49 ERA and a 29:6 K:BB in 25 1/3 innings. Opposing batters hit just .191 against him. Lowder was promoted to Double A last week and in his debut for Chattanooga went five innings, allowing three runs on six hits and one walk. He struck out five.
Lowder, 22, doesn’t have the triple-digit heat à la Skenes, but he commands all four of his pitches (four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup) extremely well and is able to change speeds and eye-line on hitters. His slider and changeup are both above-average offerings.
Rhett Lowder (@Reds‘ No. 2) runs it back 🔁
MLB’s No. 31 prospect records nine strikeouts for @DragonsBaseball in back-to-back starts: pic.twitter.com/4u01szyV7g
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 4, 2024
Although the 6-foot-2 right-hander is just now getting a taste of the upper levels, it isn’t out of the question that he makes his major-league debut this season thanks to his ability to throw strikes, change speeds and keep the ball on the ground. As The Athletic’s Keith Law explained in this piece on Skenes, the transition for dominant minor-league pitchers to the big leagues has been smoother than it has been for hitters recently. Lowder could put that theory to the test after the All-Star break if he continues to perform.
Jake Gelof jumps to High A
It was a bit surprising to see Jake Gelof, the Dodgers’ 2023 second-round pick, back in the Low-A California League to start this season after he played 30 games at that level in his pro debut last season. It didn’t take the third baseman long to force a jump to High A, as he hit .310/.462/.494 with 26 RBIs in 24 games for Rancho Cucamonga. Since his promotion, he’s batting .208/.231/.417 with a homer and two doubles in six games for Great Lakes.
Jake Gelof just absolutely destroyed his first HR at the High A Level. Gelof, as mentioned by Loons PxP @VicariJohn, is the All Time Home Runs leader at Virginia, and has a world of power. Like most Dodgers, great hitter first though, .301 OPS .917. #dodgers pic.twitter.com/QEOTA8XABm
— Dodgers Daily (@dodger_daily) May 9, 2024
Gelof, 22, has been the mirror opposite of Wilson at the plate, seeing a ton of pitches, which has resulted in both high walk and high strikeout totals (38:28 K:BB in 143 PA). The Dodgers will want to see those strikeout totals come down, but the power-and-patience combination remains intriguing and the Dodgers have often found a way to get the best out of their hitting prospects.
Nick Morabito, Christopher Suero on the move for the Mets
The Mets took Nick Morabito, 21, with the 75th pick in 2022 out of Gonzaga High in Washington D.C. and have moved the outfielder gradually through the system since then. He split last year between Rookie ball and Low A, and returned to Low A this year to start the season. Morabito destroyed the Florida State League, hitting .397/.530/.513 in 24 games before earning a promotion to High-A Brooklyn. He’s hit .333/.455/.444 in five games since the promotion.
Morabito (the Mets’ No. 12 prospect) has all the makings of a top-of-the-order threat. He’s already stolen 13 bases in 29 games this season and has 35 steals in 92 games in his pro career. He sees a lot of pitches and draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeout rate some from last season. Morabito may never be a significant power hitter, but he has plenty of other valuable skills.
The versatile Christopher Suero joined the Mets as an international amateur free agent in 2022. He spent that season in the Dominican Summer League and jumped stateside last year to the Florida Complex League, where he hit an impressive .281/.422/.469. He’s continued to get on base at a solid clip this year, hitting .265/.390/.434 in 25 games for Low-A St. Lucie before joining Morabito with a promotion to Brooklyn. In six games for the Cyclones, he’s hit .111/.261/.167.
Suero, 20, is a native of the Bronx. He profiles as a potentially valuable bench player with his on-base skills and his ability to catch, play left field and first base.
UPDATE: Shortly after the publication of this article, the Mets made two more promotions, moving outfielder Ryan Clifford (No. 8 Mets’ prospect) and right-hander Brandon Sproat (No. 13) from High A to Double A. Clifford was batting only .216 in High A but had a .416 OBP thanks to 32 walks in 31 games. He’s homered just once and has 42 strikeouts, however. The 20-year-old was part of the Mets’ return for Justin Verlander last summer.
Sproat, the Mets’ 2023 second-round pick out of Florida, dominated in his pro debut with Brooklyn. In six appearances (five starts), he had a 1.07 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings. He did, however, walk 16. Walks were an issue for Sproat at Florida, as well, and that wildness was likely the reason he lasted until the second round of last year’s draft.
Notable Complex League prospects to watch
The lower levels of the minor leagues have been a mess since MLB eliminated the short-season and non-Complex Rookie leagues. Clubs that usually used those leagues to develop their international prospects and high school talents have been forced to either push those players to full-season affiliates earlier than they’d typically like to or keep them back in the Complex leagues longer. The result has been an uneven quality of play in A-ball, especially in Low A.
Limiting the draft to 20 rounds and trimming the number of players teams can have in their system at any time has exacerbated this issue, as there are fewer “organizational” players in the lower levels (i.e., polished four-year college players who aren’t likely to make the major leagues but raise the level of play in the low minors.)
None of this is being fixed any time soon, but at least one positive change has emerged this season — the Arizona and Florida Complex Leagues started a month earlier than in past years. That at least gives teams a chance to get more competitive at-bats and innings for younger prospects than in previous years.
The two Complex Leagues began their seasons on May 4. Although not every player on an active roster has played yet, we can see who is set to start their seasons (or get a reset) at that level. Here’s a look at some of the notable prospects to watch in the Arizona and Florida Complex Leagues.
Seattle Mariners: Felnin Celesten, Jeter Martinez, Walter Ford, Cole Phillips
The Mariners might have the most star-studded Complex League roster. Celesten and Martinez were two of the most highly regarded January 2023 international signings. Celesten, 18, missed all of last season with an injury but is already off to a fast start in Peoria, Ariz. The switch hitter is batting .364/.481/.591 in six games. He’s the Mariners’ No. 5 prospect.
Here’s an open side look at #Mariners Felnin Celesten’s RBI double. Solid opposite field approach and the ball flys off his bat! Followed by slow-mo as well😍 pic.twitter.com/a8Pzetd95e
— Prospects Worldwide (@ProspectsWorldW) May 8, 2024
Martinez (No. 17 Seattle prospect) had a strong debut last season in the DSL, posting a 1.72 ERA and a 55:20 K:BB in 47 innings. The 18-year-old native of Mexico has thrown two three-inning starts, allowing two runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts in those six frames.
Ford, 19, was the 74th pick in the 2022 draft out of Pace (Fla.) High. Nicknamed “the Vanilla Missile,” he came to pro ball with a significant social media presence as well as an explosive fastball. His velocity was down last season in his pro debut, when he had a 3.57 ERA in 22 2/3 innings with a 23:10 K:BB. He’s coming into this season reportedly in better shape than last year and may not stay in the ACL long if he gets good early results. He allowed one earned run in 2 2/3 innings with four strikeouts and no walks in his 2024 debut.
Phillips, 20, begins the season on the 60-day injured list while completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery, which he had in 2022 shortly after going to Atlanta in the second round of that year’s draft. (Update: A reader correctly notes that Phillips had a second Tommy John surgery in April and will miss the entire season.) The right-hander was part of the return the Mariners received in the trade that sent Jarred Kelenic to the Braves. Phillips had a near triple-digit fastball in high school and his debut will be worth monitoring.
Philadelphia Phillies: Starlyn Caba
Caba, the Phillies’ No. 13 prospect, is a sweet-fielding shortstop who hit .301/.423/.346 in his pro debut in the DSL last year. The 18-year-old switch hitter is off to a fast start in the FCL, collecting his first pro homer and hitting .316/.480/.579 in six games.
San Francisco Giants: Ryan Reckley, Walker Martin, Rayner Arias
Of the three biggest names on the Giants’ ACL roster, only Reckley has thus far appeared in a game. Reckley was one of the top international signings in the 2022 class but has struggled since turning pro. He hit only .164/.335/.261 in 45 ACL games last season and returns to that level this year. The 19-year-old shortstop is 2-for-7 in two games to start the year.
Martin (No. 6 Giants’ prospect) and Arias (No. 8) have been slowed by injuries and won’t debut until they have completed their rehabs and playing progressions, according to Giants farm director Kyle Haines. Martin is dealing with a hamstring strain, while Arias suffered a left wrist injury on a diving play. Arias’ outstanding pro debut in the DSL came to an end last year with an injury to the same wrist.
Texas Rangers: Braylin Morel, Brock Porter
MLB.com named Morel the DSL’s top prospect last season after he hit .344/.417/.644 with seven homers in 47 games. The 18-year-old center fielder is now in the United States, and he batted .250/381/.438 in his first five ACL games.
Porter, the Rangers’ No. 5 prospect, is back in the ACL after a disappointing start to the season in High A. He walked 13 in 8 1/3 innings and allowed six runs over three starts before returning to Arizona for a reset. Porter, a 2022 fourth-round pick who signed for first-round money, had a 2.47 ERA with a 97:45 K:BB in 69 1/3 innings in Low A last season.
Of note: Former major-league outfielders DJ Peters and Michael Reed are also on the ACL Rangers’ roster as pitchers.
Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Bitonti
Bitonti, the Brewers’ 2023 third-round pick, was one of the youngest players in his draft class. Milwaukee’s No. 16 prospect appeared in 12 games in the ACL last season, hitting .179/.333/.410 with two homers. The 18-year-old third baseman has big power potential and is batting .296/.345/.444 through six games this year.
Cincinnati Reds: Sammy Stafura
Like Bitonti, Stafura, 19, was a high school draft pick last year — going in the second round to the Reds. The upstate New York native struck out in 23 of 53 plate appearances in the ACL last season but is off to a much better start this year. The Reds’ No. 9 prospect is batting .524/.600/.762 in five games.
Boston Red Sox: Yoeilin Cespedes
One of the top international signings in 2023, Cespedes had an impressive pro debut in the DSL last season, batting .346/.392/.560 with six homers in 46 games, showing off excellent bat-to-ball skills. The 18-year-old shortstop is the Red Sox’s No. 8 prospect and is 1-for-8 in two games.
Minnesota Twins: Bryan Acuña
One of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr.’s younger brothers, Bryan is returning to the FCL after hitting only .185 in 40 games there last season. The 2022 international signing still managed a .327 on-base percentage in 2023 and continues to reach base at a good clip. (He’s batted .500/.647/.750 with five walks in five games thus far.) The 18-year-old shortstop is the Twins’ No. 20 prospect and has plus speed to go along with his on-base skills.
White Sox: Grant Taylor
Taylor was the White Sox’s second-round pick last year out of LSU and is Chicago’s No. 10 prospect. He missed all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but was a potential first-round pick before the injury. He made his pro debut this past week, allowing three runs on three hits in 3 1/3 innings. He walked one and struck out seven.
Tampa Bay Rays: Erick Lara
The Rays acquired Lara as part of their return for sending Vidal Bruján to Miami. The 17-year-old hit .305/.416/.445 in 34 games for the Marlins’ DSL club last year. Lara is a tall, lanky middle infielder with lots of room to add power to his frame. He’s batted .211/.333/.263 in five games to start the year.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Pirela
Pirela, 18, opened a lot of eyes last season in his pro debut when he hit six homers in 41 games in the DSL. He walked 25 times but also struck out a bunch (40). The left-handed hitter has big power potential and a 6-foot-3 frame to dream on. He’s 1-for-19 in five games so far in the ACL.
Chicago Cubs: Derniche Valdez
Valdez was the Cubs’ highest profile international signing in 2023 and he showed intriguing power potential in his DSL debut, hitting six homers in 35 games. He also struck out 51 times. The 18-year-old shortstop is off to a solid start in the ACL this year, with three hits — including a homer and a triple — in 11 at-bats through four games.
Los Angeles Angels: Nixon Encarnacion, John Wimmer
Encarnacion, 19, was one of the top pitchers to sign in the 2022 international class but he missed all of 2023 with injury. The right-hander has a live arm, which was on display in 2022, when he struck out 43 in 35 2/3 innings in the DSL. In his 2024 debut, Encarnacion was dominant through three innings before tiring in the fourth, allowing two earned runs and two walks and striking out three over 3 2/3 innings.
Wimmer was an over-slot signing out of the 11th round in last year’s draft by the Angels. He got his feet wet in the ACL last season, hitting .161 with 17 strikeouts in 31 at-bats. The 19-year-old shortstop is 0-for-9 with a walk in two games this season.
New York Mets: Jeremy Rodriguez
The Mets picked up Rodriguez in the trade with the Diamondbacks that sent Tommy Pham to the eventual NL champions last summer. He hit .422 in 13 games in the DSL after the trade and is making his U.S. debut this season. The 17-year-old shortstop has a lanky frame and a smooth left-handed swing. He’s batting .400/.500/.600 in four games to start this year.
(Photo of Jacob Wilson with Double-A Midland: John E. Moore III / Getty Images)
